I am trying to find the best method to model the population growth in a school. In my possession I have the student count by semester in the last 16 years. Moreover the first information I consist of a growth from 2510 to 7213 students. Any recommendations as to which method I can use to model this growth and that will help me make predictions of the population in the future. I am currently looking in regression and the logistic model.
Population growth in a school tends to be influenced by external factors (how the local economy is doing, how the neighbourhood is changing, changes in school boundaries, construction of additional classrooms or portables, ...). Over a 16 year period, I very much doubt that it could be modeled very well by any simple model, such as a logistic model. You might be able to use linear regression to try to fit a curve with a few parameters, say a polynomial.
@earth_space, Logistic regression will not work here at all. It's used when you have some categorical variable as dependent.
you need to see variation in data and then you can use linear Regression analysis.here are the assumption of regression-
Other possible time series algos must also be checked starting from AR, MA, ARMA and ARIMA etc.