I'm having troubles in understanding the steps performed by the ur.df function in R. I'm performing an Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test with drift to assess if my series has a unit root or not. The first time i chose to set maximum lags equal to 9 and the second time i set the maximum lag equal to 5. The function should select the best lag order through the AIC. I don't know why the statistics of the test where i set the maximum lag=9 is different from the test where i set the maximum lag equal to five. They both should derive from the regression with just two lags because the regression with two lags is the best one according to the AIC. Why are they different? I'm missing something.
These are the code and the results of the test:
test=ur.df(myseries,type="drift",lags=9,selectlags = "AIC")
summary(test)
###############################################
# Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Unit Root Test #
###############################################
Test regression drift
Call:
lm(formula = z.diff ~ z.lag.1 + 1 + z.diff.lag)
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-5.6558 -0.8559 -0.1850 0.9438 3.3900
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 0.3351 0.4166 0.804 0.4282
z.lag.1 -0.3662 0.2171 -1.687 0.1032
z.diff.lag1 -0.1267 0.2032 -0.624 0.5381
z.diff.lag2 -0.3465 0.1834 -1.890 0.0696 .
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
Residual standard error: 1.744 on 27 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.3679, Adjusted R-squared: 0.2976
F-statistic: 5.238 on 3 and 27 DF, p-value: 0.005583
Value of test-statistic is: -1.6868 1.5055
It seems that the program set the best lag to 2 according to the AIC. If i set the maximum lag equal to 5 it chooses again the lag 2 as the best one but now the p-value is different. Here are the results
test=ur.df(myseries,type="drift",lags=5,selectlags = "AIC")
###############################################
# Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Unit Root Test #
###############################################
Test regression drift
Call:
lm(formula = z.diff ~ z.lag.1 + 1 + z.diff.lag)
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-5.5543 -0.9269 -0.2216 0.9126 3.4027
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 0.44241 0.39802 1.112 0.2749
z.lag.1 -0.45811 0.19678 -2.328 0.0266 *
z.diff.lag1 -0.01737 0.17767 -0.098 0.9227
z.diff.lag2 -0.29120 0.16638 -1.750 0.0900 .
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
Residual standard error: 1.7 on 31 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.3694, Adjusted R-squared: 0.3083
F-statistic: 6.052 on 3 and 31 DF, p-value: 0.002287
Value of test-statistic is: -2.3281 2.9333