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Sorry for the bad screengrab. I'm trying to figure out why the conditional probability values in the question below are the values that they are. So specifically I'm wondering about P(d1 | g3) and P(i1 | g3)

The values for d1 and i1 are unconditional probabilities just assigned to those conditions and the table are the conditional probabilities for each variable combination. I'm a novice at probability and am trying to figure out an equation that will give me these values. It doesn't seem like P(A and B)/P(A) will do it and I was thinking it might need a Bayes Formula equation but am not sure how that would go or if that is the right direction.

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I have a feeling you may have misunderstood the question the slide was asking, (or rather, whether the slide was asking a question in the first place) and in fact the four probabilities stated there are "given" as an introduction to a problem (presumably continued in the next slide), rather than "the answers". Was there a question further down the line? (e.g. what is the probability the student gets a g3 grade irrespective of their intelligence and difficulty?). If not, I will admit that this question is causing me considerable confusion as well!

I'll explain my skepticism. If these are given

\begin{array}{rclclrcll} P ( d^1) & = & 0.4 & ~~~\Rightarrow~~~ & P ( d^0) & = & 1 - 0.4 & = & 0.6 \\ P ( i^1) & = & 0.3 & ~~~\Rightarrow~~~ & P ( i^0) & = & 1 - 0.3 & = & 0.7 \end{array}

but $p(d^1 | g^3)$ and $p(i^1 | g^3)$ are not, and you're asked to prove that those are the 'correct' values, then in the absence of any further information we cannot establish that, unless there's an assumption of independence_ for $d$ and $i$, in which case:

\begin{array}{| c | c | c | c |} \hline & \mathbf{d^0} & \mathbf{d^1} & \mathbf{Column Totals} \\ \hline \mathbf{i^0} & 0.42 & 0.28 & \mathbf{0.7} \\ \hline \mathbf{i^1} & 0.18 & 0.12 & \mathbf{0.3} \\ \hline \mathbf{Row Totals} & \mathbf{0.6} & \mathbf{0.4} & \mathbf{4}\\ \hline \end{array}

Then here's the full table of joint probabilities:

\begin{array}{| c | c | c | c | c |} \hline & \mathbf{g^1} & \mathbf{g^2} & \mathbf{g^3} & \mathbf{Cols} \\ \hline \mathbf{i^0}, \mathbf{d^0} & 0.3 \times 0.42 = 0.126 & 0.4 \times 0.42 = 0.168 & 0.3 \times 0.42 = 0.126 & \mathbf{0.42} \\ \hline \mathbf{i^0}, \mathbf{d^1} & 0.05 \times 0.28 = 0.014 & 0.25 \times 0.28 = 0.07 & 0.7 \times 0.28 = 0.196 & \mathbf{0.28} \\ \hline \mathbf{i^1}, \mathbf{d^0} & 0.9 \times 0.18 = 0.162 & 0.08 \times 0.18 = 0.0144 & 0.02 \times 0.18 = 0.0036 & \mathbf{0.18} \\ \hline \mathbf{i^1}, \mathbf{d^1} & 0.5 \times 0.12 = 0.06 & 0.3 \times 0.12 = 0.036 & 0.2 \times 0.12 = 0.024& \mathbf{0.12} \\ \hline \mathbf{Rows} & \mathbf{0.362} & \mathbf{0.2884} & \mathbf{0.3496} & \mathbf{1} \\ \hline \end{array}

Therefore

  • $ p ( d^1 |~ g^3 ) = p ( d^1, i^0 |~ g^3 ) + p ( d^1, i^1 |~ g^3 ) = 0.196 + 0.024 = 0.22 $
  • $ p ( i^1 |~ g^3 ) = p ( i^1, d^0 |~ g^3 ) + p ( i^1, d^1 |~ g^3 ) = 0.0036 + 0.024 = 0.0276 $

Which are not the values we 'expected'.

Which leads me to believe those are also "given information", and that $i$ and $d$ are not independent, and that you're instead supposed to use that information to derive the true probability table between $i$ and $d$ (which you might then use to answer the real question, such as the one I posed in the introduction to this answer).

If this is the case, then the true joint probability table for $i$ and $d$ is given by the following system of equations:

$p(d^0, i^0 | g^3) + p(d^0, i^1 | g^3) = 0.37~~~~$ (from 1 - 0.63)
$p(d^1, i^0 | g^3) + p(d^1, i^1 | g^3) = 0.63~~~~$ (given)
$p(d^0, i^0 | g^3) + p(d^1, i^0 | g^3) = 0.92~~~~$ (from 1 - 0.08)
$p(d^0, i^1 | g^3) + p(d^1, i^1 | g^3) = 0.08~~~~$ (given)

which happens to be 'incomplete', i.e. you can only collapse on an answer for all four if you arbitrarily assign a value to one of them and derive the rest ... which means we're still missing information. (Or, you can set one of those to 'x' and express the rest as a function of 'x').

EDIT(2):

Apologies, I was thrown off by the format of the table, which is a bit unusual; it is a table of conditional probabilities, as opposed to joint probabilities. For instance, cell $\{i^0d^0,g^3\}$ denotes the probability $p(g^3 | i^0d^0)$. Also, you know it's this probability rather than, say, $p(i^0d^0 | g^3)$ because the rows sum up to 1, i.e. given the row, the sum of the columns adds up to 1, and is therefore a complete probability distribution with respect to $g$ (given the row).

Given this information, we can now use the above system of equations, and the information from the table, namely:

\begin{array}{lll} p(g^3 | i^0d^0) & = & 0.3 \\ p(g^3 | i^0d^1) & = & 0.7 \\ p(g^3 | i^1d^0) & = & 0.02 \\ p(g^3 | i^1d^1) & = & 0.2 \end{array}

and plug them into applications of the Bayes theorem.

Which still means these are all things to plug into a problem, as soon as a valid question is asked :)

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  • $\begingroup$ I will admit I'm currently trying to figure out if the conditional probability values are 'assigned' for the sake of the example - I have a forum post up for this course asking that question which has not yet been answered. Basically there is no 'question' that follows this per say; it's meant to be an introduction to active paths in Bayesian probability so it is possible .63 and .08 are just assigned values. Would using Bayes Formula here be appropriate? If we do both problems with our given values and that formula is looks like we can get close to the given answers. $\endgroup$ Commented Jul 5, 2017 at 2:44
  • $\begingroup$ Bayes Formula, and more generally the two core axioms of probability, namely the product rule $\Bigl ( p(A=a,B=b) ~~~{=}~~~ p(A=a~|~B=b)\,p(B=b) \Bigr )$ and the sum rule $\displaystyle \Bigl ( \sum_b p(A=a,B=b) ~~~{=}~~~ p (A=a) \Bigr )$, (where Bayes Theorem is a direct consequence of the first), are indeed the way to go answering such problems. But the point here is that the numbers don't agree with each other in the first place. Btw, the numbers you posted in your answer don't make much sense. (I'll comment there to point out the specifics though) $\endgroup$ Commented Jul 5, 2017 at 9:40
  • $\begingroup$ Ok, edited my post to correct some misconceptions / mistaken assumptions I made. Namely what the table you are given is showing. Sorry for the confusion. $\endgroup$ Commented Jul 5, 2017 at 11:37
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It appears that Bayes' Theorem was the way to go. Defining your probabilities gives you the following values:

P(B|A) = (.7+.2)/2 = .45

P(A) = .4 (given)

P(B|A') = (.3 + .02)/2 = .16

P(A') = 1-.4 = .6

Using the formula here we get:

((.45)(.4) / (.45)(.4) + (.16)(.6)) = .65 Which I take to be close enough given the approximation sign.

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  • $\begingroup$ Your calculations here make no sense. It seems like you're trying to take the average of two conditional probabilities to get rid of one of the conditionals, which doesn't generally hold true. I.e. $p(g^3|d^1) \not\equiv \Bigl ( p(g^3|d^1i^0) + p(g^3 | d^1i^1) \Bigr ) / 2 $. $\endgroup$ Commented Jul 5, 2017 at 11:52

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