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Suppose for the AR(1) model, $$Y_t=\phi_1Y_{t-1}+e_t$$

I want to find the variance $Var(Y_t)$ using lag operator: $$Y_t=(1-\phi_1L)^{-1}e_t$$

My way is simply taking the variance, $$Var(Y_t)=(1-\phi_1L)^{-2}\sigma^2=\sigma^2/(1-\phi_1)^2$$

But obviously, it is not the correct answer, which is $\sigma^2/(1-\phi_1^2)$.

I am new to this topic but the above approach seems logical to me. Can anyone point out the mistake of this method? Thank you.

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  • $\begingroup$ What exactly is $L$? $\endgroup$
    – Winkelried
    Commented Mar 31, 2018 at 14:32
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    $\begingroup$ @Winkelried - $L$ is the "lag operator"; $Lx_t = x_{t-1}$, for example. $\endgroup$
    – jbowman
    Commented Mar 31, 2018 at 14:47

1 Answer 1

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Assuming $|\phi_1|<1$, you have

$ Y_t = (1-\phi_1 L)^{-1} e_t = \sum_{i=0}^{\infty} (\phi_1L)^i e_t = \sum_{i=0}^{\infty} \phi_1^i e_{t-i}. $

Hence,

$ Var(Y_t) = \sum_{i=0}^{\infty} \phi_1^{2i} \sigma^2 = \frac{\sigma^2}{1-\phi_1^2}. $

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    $\begingroup$ +1, this answer is great, plus it demonstrates the relationship between an AR(1) and an MA($\infty$) process. $\endgroup$ Commented Mar 31, 2018 at 15:56

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