I have a doubt about forecasting analysis.
Let's say I have a "time" variable and a "budget" variable. I would like to build two model:
- time series model where I forecast the budget for the next, for example, 6 months;
- another time series model where I forecast the next 6 months (same as above) but where I consider a loss of budget due to another lockdown (due to pandemic) during the months of november and december.
For 1, I would apply a standard forecasting method, but I have a doubt about number 2, what would be the right method and packages to do such thing, if possible?
I would like to do that for a thesis project but I just started to scratch the surface of time series analysis.
Thanks in advance.