I am using glmmTMB in r to model count data. I use poison and negative binomial error distributions. If I add one more predictor to my models I end up having convergence problems. I would like to assess if that is due to overfitting. Does anybody know how could I measure it?
Thank you in advance
UPDATE: Below the outputs from my models. The one with convergence problem (m2) and the one without them (m3). The dataset: We collected beechnuts in 30 1x1m-plots distributed evenly across 3 sampling sites from 2007 to 2017. The number of days elapsed since the plots were cleaned until the beechnuts were counted differs from one year to another and its included as an offset in the model.
> summary(m2)
Family: nbinom2 ( log )
Formula: NseedsSUM ~ 1 + B_pos.STD + site * year + (1 | plot)
Data: seeds_
Offset: log(Ndays)
AIC BIC logLik deviance df.resid
3066.6 3202.6 -1497.3 2994.6 287
Random effects:
Conditional model:
Groups Name Variance Std.Dev.
plot (Intercept) 0.162 0.4025
Number of obs: 323, groups: plot, 30
Overdispersion parameter for nbinom2 family (): 3.39
Conditional model:
Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
(Intercept) -0.41686 NA NA NA
B_pos.STD -0.43983 NA NA NA
siteBUK2 -0.67753 NA NA NA
siteBUK3 0.53513 NA NA NA
year2008 0.08931 NA NA NA
year2009 -1.43008 NA NA NA
year2010 1.17747 NA NA NA
year2011 -0.95928 NA NA NA
year2012 -0.13284 NA NA NA
year2013 0.78547 NA NA NA
year2014 -2.41535 NA NA NA
year2015 1.00981 NA NA NA
year2016 0.44433 NA NA NA
year2017 -1.40612 NA NA NA
siteBUK2:year2008 1.19302 NA NA NA
siteBUK3:year2008 -0.40655 NA NA NA
siteBUK2:year2009 1.68983 NA NA NA
siteBUK3:year2009 -1.18957 NA NA NA
siteBUK2:year2010 1.37064 NA NA NA
siteBUK3:year2010 -1.22248 NA NA NA
siteBUK2:year2011 1.31547 NA NA NA
siteBUK3:year2011 -0.58677 NA NA NA
siteBUK2:year2012 1.13851 NA NA NA
siteBUK3:year2012 -0.78668 NA NA NA
siteBUK2:year2013 0.84691 NA NA NA
siteBUK3:year2013 -0.96903 NA NA NA
siteBUK2:year2014 0.53060 NA NA NA
siteBUK3:year2014 -1.16498 NA NA NA
siteBUK2:year2015 0.34455 NA NA NA
siteBUK3:year2015 -1.32380 NA NA NA
siteBUK2:year2016 1.24614 NA NA NA
siteBUK3:year2016 0.31392 NA NA NA
siteBUK2:year2017 0.33922 NA NA NA
siteBUK3:year2017 -1.55100 NA NA NA
> summary(m3)
Family: nbinom2 ( log )
Formula: NseedsSUM ~ 1 + B_pos.STD * site + B_pos.STD:year + year + (1 | plot)
Data: seeds_
Offset: log(Ndays)
AIC BIC logLik deviance df.resid
3061.7 3167.5 -1502.9 3005.7 295
Random effects:
Conditional model:
Groups Name Variance Std.Dev.
plot (Intercept) 0.165 0.4063
Number of obs: 323, groups: plot, 30
Overdispersion parameter for nbinom2 family (): 3.25
Conditional model:
Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
(Intercept) -1.04112 0.22397 -4.649 3.34e-06 ***
B_pos.STD -1.76325 0.34466 -5.116 3.12e-07 ***
siteBUK2 0.06471 0.22261 0.291 0.771309
siteBUK3 -0.21918 0.23308 -0.940 0.347029
year2008 0.98536 0.20135 4.894 9.90e-07 ***
year2009 -0.74509 0.26493 -2.812 0.004918 **
year2010 1.57038 0.24178 6.495 8.30e-11 ***
year2011 -0.35528 0.25155 -1.412 0.157836
year2012 0.71452 0.21021 3.399 0.000676 ***
year2013 1.46731 0.21624 6.786 1.16e-11 ***
year2014 -1.91446 0.26335 -7.270 3.60e-13 ***
year2015 1.42133 0.20783 6.839 7.98e-12 ***
year2016 1.99248 0.22911 8.697 < 2e-16 ***
year2017 -1.07784 0.21373 -5.043 4.58e-07 ***
B_pos.STD:siteBUK2 0.01186 0.19320 0.061 0.951045
B_pos.STD:siteBUK3 0.30341 0.30709 0.988 0.323146
B_pos.STD:year2008 1.54494 0.32164 4.803 1.56e-06 ***
B_pos.STD:year2009 1.60736 0.27125 5.926 3.11e-09 ***
B_pos.STD:year2010 1.74972 0.30033 5.826 5.68e-09 ***
B_pos.STD:year2011 1.67172 0.35339 4.731 2.24e-06 ***
B_pos.STD:year2012 1.22328 0.23026 5.313 1.08e-07 ***
B_pos.STD:year2013 1.20952 0.23957 5.049 4.45e-07 ***
B_pos.STD:year2014 1.39240 0.35747 3.895 9.82e-05 ***
B_pos.STD:year2015 1.25820 0.25663 4.903 9.45e-07 ***
B_pos.STD:year2016 0.29407 0.40509 0.726 0.467884
B_pos.STD:year2017 1.46678 0.31602 4.641 3.46e-06 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
>
The warning I get when I run the model m2 is the following:
Warning message:
In fitTMB(TMBStruc) :
Model convergence problem; extreme or very small eigen values detected. See vignette('troubleshooting')
summary(mymodel)
for both the model which converges normally and the one that does not. $\endgroup$