Sorry if this is a n00b question, I'm just trying to wrap my head around the problem. I am trying to refute conventional wisdom here, so any help is greatly appreciated.
And now for the question:
For example, I flip a coin 100 times and I end up with 50 consecutive heads followed by 50 consecutive tails. How would I calculate the probability or likelihood that the next time I replay the scenario that I will end up with the exact same result? Would the equation be different if we were using a ternary or quaternary event instead of a binary event?
Conventional, non-statistical, wisdom would assume that coming to the same result on consecutive attempts would be incredibly remote, but that the odds of eventually getting an identical result would increase as more attempts are made, i.e. 50/50, 50/50 would be implausible, but 50/50, 49/51, 51/49 ... 50/50 would be plausible.