I'm considering the scenario described in this question, namely:
- we have IID $X_i, i = 1, ..., n$ sampled from a population with mean $\mu$, variance $\sigma^2$ unknown
- the goal is to put a confidence interval on the sample mean, $\bar{X}_n$
- we believe the population is not normal, say it is trimodal
- set $S_n^2 = \frac{\sum (X_i - \bar{X}_n)^2}{n-1}$ (sample variance)
- if the sample size $n$ is sufficiently large, we know by the CLT that $\bar{X}_n$ is approximately sampled from $N(\mu, S_n/\sqrt{n}$, which provides confidence intervals form the normal distribution.
The previous question was how to know if $n$ is sufficiently large, and the answer was boostrapping to gain a diagnostic:
- for $i = 1, ..., 10,000$, sample $Y_j(i)$ for $j = 1, ..., n$ with replacement from $\{X_1, ..., X_n\}$, and take their sample mean $\bar{Y}(i,n)$.
- use a QQ plot or other method to investigate if the bootstrapped sample means $\{ \bar{Y}(i,n): i = 1, ..., 10,000\}$ is indeed normal.
- If so, then $n$ is large enough to use the confidence intervals from $N(\mu, S_n/\sqrt{n})$ on $\bar{X}_n$.
Question:
I am trying to understand the math underpinning of using this boostrapping + QQ plot technique as a diagnostic for $n$. I believe the desired theorems for this algorithm is as follows:
- If $n$ is large enough that the sample mean $\bar{X}_n$ is (approximately) $N(\mu, S_n/n)$, then the bootstrapped sample means $\{ \bar{Y}(i,n): i = 1, ..., 10,000\}$ are (approximately) too.
- If $n$ is large enough that the bootstrapped sample means $\{ \bar{Y}(i,n): i = 1, ..., 10,000\}$ are (approximately) normal, then sample mean $\bar{X}_n$ is (approximately) from the same normal too.
I believe I can prove 1. via these two facts:
- $Y_j(i)$ are IID samples of $\{X_1, ..., X_n\}$
- $\bar{Y}(i,n) - \bar{X}_n \to 0$ as $n\to \infty$ by CLT for each $i$
How do we prove 2? Here is a start:
- Suppose the bootstrapped sample means $\{ \bar{Y}(i,n): i = 1, ..., 10,000\}$ are (approximately) normal.
- We know from CLT that $\bar{Y}(i,n)$ are approximately $N(\bar{X}_n, S_n/n)$.
- ??
I think the missing piece is (roughly speaking) this statement: "the sample mean's distribution is approximately the same as the bootstrapped sample means' empirical distribution" but that is not a rigorous statement, nor do I know how to prove it. Also, given the proliferation of bootstrapping, I think some more general version holds: "the sample statistic's distribution is approximately the same as the bootstrapped sample statistics' empirical distribution"
I have run a few simulations to verify that the former seems true.
If this is not the correct formulation of a needed math formulation to trust the bootstrapping diagnostic algorithm, what is?
the sample mean's distribution is approximately the same as the bootstrapped sample means' empirical distribution
Didn't Efron prove something to this effect in the early bootstrap work? I even think what Efron showed was more general. $\endgroup$