3
$\begingroup$

Let $X_1, \ldots, X_n$ be i.i.d. random variables from the standard normal distribution and let $\bar{X} = \frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^n X_i$ be their sample mean.

I'm interested in the distribution of the $Y_i = \bar{X}-X_i$. Specifically, assuming that there exists a $p(\varepsilon)$ such that for any $i$ $$\mathbb{P}(|Y_i|\le\varepsilon) \le p(\varepsilon),$$ I'm trying to bound $\mathbb{P}(\max_i|Y_i|\le\varepsilon)$ as a function of $p(\epsilon)$ and $n$. If the $Y_i$ were independent, we could readily write $$\mathbb{P}(\max_i|Y_i|\le\varepsilon) = \prod_{i=1}^n \mathbb{P}(|Y_i|\le\varepsilon) \le p(\varepsilon)^n.$$ Unfortunately, the $Y_i$ are not independent. I've tried another approach and I'm wondering whether it is correct.

Step 1. The $Y_i$ are jointly normally distributed and they are all independent from $\bar{X}$.

Step 2. Therefore, the conditional probability distribution of $Y_i$ given $\bar{X}$ is equal to its unconditional distribution, and so $\mathbb{P}(|Y_i|\le\varepsilon) = \mathbb{P}(|Y_i|\le\varepsilon \mid \bar{X}=\bar{x})$.

Step 3. When $\bar{X}=\bar{x}$ is fixed, $Y_i = \bar{X} - X_i = \bar{x} - X_i$ and since the $X_i$ are independent, the $Y_i$ are all mutually conditionally independent given $\bar{X}$. Therefore, $$\mathbb{P}(\max_i|Y_i|\le\varepsilon \mid \bar{X}=\bar{x}) = \prod_{i=1}^n \mathbb{P}(|Y_i|\le\varepsilon \mid \bar{X}=\bar{x}).$$

It seems to me that by combining Steps 1-3 we can conclude $$\mathbb{P}(\max_i|Y_i|\le\varepsilon) = \mathbb{P}(\max_i|Y_i|\le\varepsilon \mid \bar{X}=\bar{x}) = \prod_{i=1}^n \mathbb{P}(|Y_i|\le\varepsilon \mid\bar{X}=\bar{x})= \prod_{i=1}^n \mathbb{P}(|Y_i|\le\varepsilon) \le p(\varepsilon)^n.$$

I find this result "too good to be true" since this is what we would get if the $Y_i$ were independent. Could someone confirm whether the line of reasoning above is correct or, if not, point out where the error lies?

$\endgroup$
6
  • 1
    $\begingroup$ For anyone curious about the context, this problem arises in the field of stochastic numerical validation of floating-point computations. Modelling rounding errors as random variables, if we repeat a given computation $n$ times and compare the $n$ results $X_i$ to their sample mean, we can estimate the accuracy of the computation as a function of $\max_i |\bar{X}-X_i|$. $\endgroup$
    – Theo Mary
    Commented Jan 19 at 12:25
  • 2
    $\begingroup$ Please edit your question title to better match the question. You could derive the joint distribution of $Y$ directly. $\endgroup$
    – Firebug
    Commented Jan 19 at 12:48
  • 4
    $\begingroup$ A hint, $Y=AX$ for some $n\times n$ matrix $A$ and thus $Y$ has an n-variate normal distribution. $\endgroup$
    – utobi
    Commented Jan 19 at 13:46
  • 1
    $\begingroup$ Possibly the distribution of $\max(|x_i-\bar{x}|)$ can be related to a range distribution. It's not an easy thing to work with. $\endgroup$ Commented Jan 19 at 15:58
  • $\begingroup$ I've added $max_i$ in the title, which is indeed a crucial detail of my question (sorry for the confusion). @utobi: this should clarify it's not the $Y_i$ (which are indeed multivariate normal) I'm interested in, but the $\max_i Y_i$. $\endgroup$
    – Theo Mary
    Commented Jan 19 at 18:12

1 Answer 1

2
$\begingroup$

Step 3. When $\bar{X}=\bar{x}$ is fixed, $Y_i = \bar{X} - X_i = \bar{x} - X_i$ and since the $X_i$ are independent

The $X_i$ are not independent when you condition on $\bar{X}$.

(and also when you consider to not condition on $\bar{X}$, the $X_i$ are not independent from $\bar{X}$ so the left hand side in $Y_i = \bar{X} - X_i$ does not need to be independent if the $X_i$ are independent)

$\endgroup$
1
  • $\begingroup$ Thanks, that makes sense! $\endgroup$
    – Theo Mary
    Commented Jan 19 at 18:06

Your Answer

By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you agree to our terms of service and acknowledge you have read our privacy policy.

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.