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470
votes
What is the difference between fixed effect, random effect in mixed effect models?
Once you have this idea in mind, the mixed-effects model equations follow naturally. … For example, in the above example we would most likely treat the mean income in a given ZIP as a sample from a normal distribution, with unknown mean and sigma to be estimated by the mixed-effects fitting …
244
votes
Accepted
Interpretation of R's lm() output
Coefficients and $\hat{\beta_i}s$
Each coefficient in the model is a Gaussian (Normal) random variable. … Note that any self-respecting stats programme will not use the standard mathematical equations to compute the $\hat{\beta_i}$ because doing them on a computer can lead to a large loss of precision in the …
203
votes
Accepted
Is it possible to have a pair of Gaussian random variables for which the joint distribution ...
The bivariate normal distribution is the exception, not the rule!
It is important to recognize that "almost all" joint distributions with normal marginals are not the bivariate normal distribution. … \Phi(x),\Phi(y))$ is
$$
f(x,y) = \varphi(x) \varphi(y) c(\Phi(x), \Phi(y)) \> .
$$
Note that by applying the Gaussian copula in the above equation, we recover the bivariate normal density. …
141
votes
Accepted
Why use gradient descent for linear regression, when a closed-form math solution is available?
OLS normal equation can take order of $K^2N$ operations to calculate coefficients in this setup. … I wrote that you have to invert the matrix for didactic purposes and it's not how usually you solve the equation. …
131
votes
Accepted
Bayes regression: how is it done in comparison to standard regression?
+ \beta x_i + \varepsilon $$
can be written in terms of the probabilistic model behind it
$$
\mu_i = \alpha + \beta x_i \\
y_i \sim \mathcal{N}(\mu_i, \sigma)
$$
i.e. dependent variable $Y$ follows normal … \text{prior} $$
The likelihood function is the same as above, but what changes is that you assume some prior distributions for the estimated parameters $\alpha,\beta,\sigma$ and include them into the equation …
124
votes
If I have a 58% chance of winning a point, what's the chance of me winning a ping pong game ...
Since your chance of winning in any situation is $p$, we have
$$\eqalign{
g(0) &= p g(1) + (1-p)g(-1), \\
g(1) &= p + (1-p)g(0),\\
g(-1) &= pg(0).
}$$
The unique solution to this system of linear equations … A Z-score (with approximately a Normal distribution) can be computed to test such results:
Z <- (mean(sim) - 0.85591399165186659) / (sd(sim)/sqrt(n.sim))
message(round(Z, 3)) # Should be between -3 and …
94
votes
What is the intuition behind conditional Gaussian distributions?
The following analysis shows precisely what property of ellipses is involved and derives all the equations of the question using elementary ideas and the simplest possible arithmetic, in a way intended … The unique solution to the equation $(\rho, \lambda \sqrt{1-\rho^2} + \rho^2) = (\rho, 1)$ is $\lambda = \sqrt{1-\rho^2}$. …
92
votes
Interpretation of R's output for binomial regression
Below Pr(>|z|) are listed the two-tailed p-values that correspond to those z-values in a standard normal distribution. … A linear model can be fit by solving closed form equations. Unfortunately, that cannot be done with most GLiMs including logistic regression. …
91
votes
Accepted
How does saddlepoint approximation work?
$$
K'(t) - x_t=0, \\
\tag{§} \label{§}
$$
which is called the saddlepoint equation. … One observation is that for the normal density function, the left-out term contributes nothing, so that approximation is exact. …
88
votes
Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) in layman terms
In a linear model, we assume that the points follow a normal (Gaussian) probability
distribution, with mean $x\beta$ and variance $\sigma^2$: $y = \mathcal{N}(x\beta, \sigma^2)$. … The equation of this probability density function is: $$\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi\sigma^2}}\exp{\left(-\frac{(y_i-x_i\beta)^2}{2\sigma^2}\right)}$$
What we want to find is the parameters $\beta$ and $\sigma …
86
votes
What algorithm is used in linear regression?
There are at least three methods used in practice for computing least-squares solutions: the normal equations, QR decomposition, and singular value decomposition. … George already showed the method of normal equations in his answer; one just solves the $n\times n$ set of linear equations
$\mathbf{A}^\top\mathbf{A}\mathbf{c}=\mathbf{A}^\top\mathbf{y}$
for $\mathbf …
84
votes
Accepted
How to take derivative of multivariate normal density?
If you have a random vector ${\boldsymbol y}$ that is multivariate normal with mean vector ${\boldsymbol \mu}$ and covariance matrix ${\boldsymbol \Sigma}$, then use equation (86) in the matrix cookbook … I've used these score equations for maximum likelihood estimation, so I know they are correct :) …
83
votes
Accepted
When (if ever) is a frequentist approach substantively better than a Bayesian?
Given that all statisticians have limited bandwidth, this frees up more time to ask questions like "is my data really approximately normal?" or "are these hazards really proportional?", etc. … up inference when the model is misspecified: bootstrap estimator, cross-validation, sandwich estimator (link also discusses general MLE inference under model misspecification), generalized estimation equations …
83
votes
The Book of Why by Judea Pearl: Why is he bashing statistics?
Let's assume $Y, X, Z$ are random variables with a multivariate normal distribution. … A linear structural equation, on the other hand, is a causal model. …
80
votes
How to derive the ridge regression solution?
Therefore the new Normal equations simplify to
$$(X^\prime X + \lambda I)\beta = X^\prime y.$$
Besides being conceptually economical--no new manipulations are needed to derive this result--it also is … Consequently, the solution of the Normal equations will immediately become possible and it will rapidly become numerically stable as $\nu$ increases from $0$. …