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For questions about political data (such as approval ratings of US presidents) and political events (such as elections).

26 votes

Probability of a single real-life future event: What does it mean when they say that "Hillar...

When statisticians say this they are not referring to the margin of victory or the share of the vote. They are running a large number of simulations of the election and counting what percentage of the …
a.powell's user avatar
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23 votes
1 answer
2k views

Explanation of what Nate Silver said about loess

In a question I asked recently, I was told that it was a big "no-no" to extrapolate with loess. But, in Nate Silver's most recent article on FiveThirtyEight.com he discussed using loess for making ele …
a.powell's user avatar
  • 1,077