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Results tagged with scoring-rules
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user 2067
Scoring rules are used to assess the accuracy of predicted probabilities, or more generally of predictive densities. Examples of scoring rules include the logarithmic, Brier, spherical, ranked probability and the Dawid-Sebastiani score and the predictive deviance.
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Is my weatherman accurate?
How about just binning the given predictions and taking the observed fractions as your estimate for each bin?
You can generalise this to a continuous model by weighing all the observations around you …
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