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Predictive models are statistical models whose primary purpose is to predict other observations of a system optimally, as opposed to models whose purpose is to test a particular hypothesis or explain a phenomenon mechanistically. As such, predictive models place less emphasis on interpretability and more emphasis on performance.

3 votes
3 answers
1k views

What methods of forecasting should I be looking at to forecast sales?

I am wanting to forecast sales of different products within a business. I have a good background in mathematics (but mainly focused on analysis, group theory, algebra etc. as opposed to statistics). …
user9940344's user avatar
1 vote
0 answers
1k views

Using a log transformation in an ARIMA model; how to get model predictions back on original ...

This question relates largely to the answer provided by Stephan here: How to know which forecasting tool to use in R? Stephan says: If you work on logged data, be aware that simply taking the …
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1 vote
1 answer
813 views

How and if to scale an ARIMA model based on relevant information

Suppose I am using an ARIMA model to predict monthly sales in my business. Now my data has some seasonality month on month and overall a trend upwards. I use some mathematical tools to make the data …
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