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In frequentist hypothesis testing, the $p$-value is the probability of a result as extreme (or more) than the observed result, under the assumption that the null hypothesis is true.

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Clarification on Danger of Inference on Predictors for Time Series Regression

I am reading the excellent book "Forecasting: Principles and Practice" and in chapter 7, section 5 there is the small section. Beware of inference after selecting predictors We do not discuss statist …