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Suppose, that we have observed data denoted as $y_{obs}$, a likelihood function $l(y|\theta)$ where the parameter $\theta$ follows a prior distribution $\pi(\theta)$.

The posterior in the usual Bayesian inference framework can be derived as

$$p(\theta|y_{obs})\propto \pi(\theta)l(y_{obs}|\theta)$$

However, in the case where the computation on likelihood function $l(y_{obs}|\theta)$ is either complex or intractable or time-consuming, a way of calculating or better approximating the posterior $p(\theta|y_{obs})$ is with the use of an ABC scheme. The idea is to keep parameters $\theta$ that generate data $y$ which are close enough to the observed $y_{obs}$.

Based on ABC, we define the joint posterior of $\theta$ and $y$

$$p_{ABC}(\theta,y|y_{obs})\propto \pi(\theta)\psi(y,y_{obs})l(y|\theta)$$

where the $\psi(\cdot,y_{obs})$ is a kernel density. And then approximate the posterior of parameter $\theta$. This approximation can be done with the use of $MCMC$ and the main steps are the following

$\bullet$ Generate $\theta^{0} \sim \pi(\theta)$

After $i$ steps

$\bullet$ Generate a candidate $\theta^{'}\sim g(\theta^{i-1},\theta^{'})$

$\bullet$ Generate data $y^{'}\sim l(y|\theta^{'})$

$\bullet$ Accept $(\theta^{'},y^{'})$ with probability $min(1,\frac{\psi(y^{'},y_{obs})\pi(\theta^{'})g(\theta^{'},\theta^{i-1})}{\psi(y^{i-1},y_{obs})\pi(\theta^{i-1})g(\theta^{i-1},\theta^{'})})$

There is also, one alternative way of doing an ABC $MCMC$, with the use of pseudo marginal. A way of doing that is considering the marginal ABC posterior in terms of the parameter $\theta$

$$p_{ABC}(\theta|y_{obs}) \propto \pi(\theta)\int \psi(y,y_{obs})l(y|\theta) dy$$

Then unbiasedly estimating the integral $\int \psi(y,y_{obs})l(y|\theta) dy$ and then conducting again the bullet points.

So, we have two approach for doing the same thing, but what are the benefits of the later one, why should we prefer it instead of the former one??

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  • $\begingroup$ It is not because you have an unbiased estimator of $p_{ABC}(\theta|y_{obs})$ that you have an easy way to simulate from it. $\endgroup$
    – Xi'an
    Commented Jan 16, 2021 at 11:48
  • $\begingroup$ @Xi'an The unbiased estimator property I assume that it is required in order to sample from the correct approximated posterior, but yes it's not the property that makes the second approach more desirable. But why someone should prefer the second one?? Mainly the only difference is the Monte Carlo estimation of the Likelihood. $\endgroup$
    – Fiodor1234
    Commented Jan 16, 2021 at 12:03
  • $\begingroup$ @Xi'an Is it the fact that indirectly in the second case you consider more that one data samples ? $\endgroup$
    – Fiodor1234
    Commented Jan 16, 2021 at 12:08
  • $\begingroup$ Again, when using the unbiased approximation$$\hat p_\text{ABC}(\theta|y_\text{obs})\propto\sum_{i=1}^M \psi(y_i(\theta),y_\text{obs})$$one need design an effective manner to simulate from this approximation. Note that the $y_i(\theta)$ are the simulated pseudo-observations, which depend on the chosen value of $\theta$. This makes the method quite unpractical. $\endgroup$
    – Xi'an
    Commented Jan 16, 2021 at 13:06
  • $\begingroup$ @Xi'an It is written in the book "Handbook of Approximate Bayesian Computation" in Chapter 9. $\endgroup$
    – Fiodor1234
    Commented Jan 16, 2021 at 13:25

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