0
$\begingroup$

In a parallel trend testing approach, @Thomas Bilach has an intuitive way to perform by assessing coefficients leads. Intuitively speaking, the specification is

$y_{it} = \alpha_i + \lambda_t + \sum_{\tau = 1}^{q}\theta_{+\tau} d_{i,t+\tau} + \delta D_{it} + u_{it},$

where the model includes unit fixed effects, time fixed effects, a series of lead indicators $d_{it}$, and the contemporaneous policy variable $D_{it}$. The leads should be standardized in a way that $d_{i,t+1}$ is equal to 1 if a treated jurisdiction is 1 year before adoption, 0 otherwise. Similarly, $d_{i,t+2}$ is equal to 1 if a treated jurisdictions is 2 years before adoption, 0 otherwise. The equation generalizes to any number of $q$ leads. The choice of how many leads to include is for you to decide. The estimates of the $\theta_{\tau}$'s should be indistinguishable from 0, which some evaluators investigate using a joint null test. The goal is to assess the "collective significance" of the lead coefficients.

It makes sense to me. However, I have not yet fully understood what does $d_{i,t}$ mean. I am quite confused because from the explanation above, "$d_{i,t+1}$ is equal to 1 if a treated jurisdiction is 1 year before adoption, 0 otherwise" means that at 1 year before adoption, all observations got the value of $d_{i,t+1}$ equalling to 1, so what do we really test here?

$\endgroup$
0

1 Answer 1

1
$\begingroup$

The $d$s are not all one since untreated observations will have zeros rather than ones. You are testing the parallel trends assumption in the past when you test that $\theta$s are jointly zero. If it holds in the past, that makes it more credible to hold in the post-treatment period (in the absence of treatment). That is where you need that assumption to be true but cannot test it since treatment has taken place.

$\endgroup$
6
  • $\begingroup$ Thanks @dimitiy. I understand what you mean exept the first sentence. I am stilll confused what is the purpose of letting $d_{it}$=1 at year t before event day. So what exactly the coefficient of $d_{it}$ mean, can I ask? Thanks a heap $\endgroup$
    – Nguyen Lis
    Commented Oct 13, 2021 at 10:12
  • 2
    $\begingroup$ It is an effect of treatment that has not yet happened. It is a kind of false placebo test. It is just like the DID coefficient, which is the effect of treatment after it has happened, where you do expect to see an effect. $\endgroup$
    – dimitriy
    Commented Oct 13, 2021 at 10:22
  • 1
    $\begingroup$ There are some subtle issues with this that are covered in doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2018.1546591 $\endgroup$
    – dimitriy
    Commented Oct 13, 2021 at 10:43
  • $\begingroup$ @dimitiy, Thanks a heap for your patience. let me try to explain what I understand. So at dit, all observation in both control sample and treatment sample receiving the value of 1 or only observation in treatment sample receiving the value of 1? If the former, it does not make sense but the later makes sense to me. $\endgroup$
    – Nguyen Lis
    Commented Oct 13, 2021 at 10:47
  • 1
    $\begingroup$ It’s the latter, and is consistent with how you defined it in your question. $\endgroup$
    – dimitriy
    Commented Oct 13, 2021 at 10:47

Your Answer

By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you agree to our terms of service and acknowledge you have read our privacy policy.

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.