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For Kendall's $\tau$ the parameter of interest is

$$E[\text{sign}(X_1-X_2)\text{sign}(Y_1-Y_2)]$$

where $(X_1,Y_1),(X_2,Y_2)$ are iid copies of $(X,Y)$.

The estimator is the famous Kendall's tau

But what about Spearman's $\rho$? I couldn't find any reliable reference about the parameter that the estimator is concerned about. This is very relevant since one can calculate p-values and confidence intervals, but... for what parameter?

The estimator defined by Spearman is very intuitive and easy to interpret when calculated, but what can I conclude with a significance test if there is no theoretical parameter involved?

Any help or reference will be appreciated!

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  • $\begingroup$ +1 I asked this same question when I was in grad school. While I do not remember the answer well enough to be able to put together a response on here, I remember it being interesting. $\endgroup$
    – Dave
    Commented Oct 20, 2021 at 2:52
  • $\begingroup$ @Dave Thanks for giving me some hope. I only ask here when I can not find the answer in any book. It is frustrating that this has to be so misterios when it is so elemental about the estimator! $\endgroup$
    – RLC
    Commented Oct 20, 2021 at 2:56
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    $\begingroup$ There is scope for rigour here and others can supply it. At an elementary level I might say this. If you think of your data as a sample, it follows that sample Spearman is an estimate and we can imagine that there could be other samples and especially bigger samples that would give better estimates. In a loose sense sample S. correlation estimates population S. correlation. If that's too weak an answer the difficulty is shared by many descriptive statistics. What does sample range estimate? The population range can be hard to define if a variable is unbounded and the population isn't finite. $\endgroup$
    – Nick Cox
    Commented Oct 20, 2021 at 11:22
  • $\begingroup$ Or a sample trimmed mean? Smart statisticians have found refuge in the idea that there can be an estimand which is what is being estimated and it's defined only indirectly by the procedure being used. Evasion, tautology, metaphysics? $\endgroup$
    – Nick Cox
    Commented Oct 20, 2021 at 11:24
  • $\begingroup$ Given that Kendall's $\tau$ can be given as $\frac{2}{n^2-n} \sum_{i < j} \text{sign}(x_i - x_j) \text{sign}(y_i - y_j)$, is $\mathbb{E}[\text{sign}(X_i - X_j) \text{sign}(Y_i - Y_j)]$ really the estimand? I would have figure that something more like $\mathbb{E}[\text{sign}(X_i - X_j) \text{sign}(Y_i - Y_j) | i < j]$ would be the estimand. $\endgroup$
    – Galen
    Commented Oct 21, 2021 at 1:43

1 Answer 1

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Suppose $(X_1,Y_1),(X_2,Y_2),\ldots,(X_n,Y_n)$ are i.i.d random vectors with a continuous distribution. Let $R_i =\operatorname{Rank}(X_i)$ among $X_1,X_2,\ldots,X_n$ and $Q_i=\operatorname{Rank}(Y_i)$ among $Y_1,Y_2,\ldots,Y_n$, $\,i=1,2,\ldots,n$.

Spearman's rank correlation coefficient is then the sample quantity

$$r_S=\frac{\sum_{i=1}^n \left(R_i-\frac{n+1}2 \right)\left(Q_i-\frac{n+1}2 \right)}{\sqrt{\sum_{i=1}^n \left(R_i-\frac{n+1}2 \right)^2}\sqrt{\sum_{i=1}^n \left(Q_i-\frac{n+1}2\right)^2}}$$

It can be shown that

$$E(r_S)\to \rho_G \quad\text{ as }n\to \infty\,, \tag{$\star$}$$

where $\rho_G$ is the grade correlation coefficient defined as

$$\rho_G=\operatorname{Corr}(F(X_1),G(Y_1))$$

Here $F$ and $G$ are the distribution functions of $X$ and $Y$ respectively.

So $r_S$ is an asymptotically unbiased estimator of $\rho_G$, and at least in this sense $\rho_G$ is a parameter of interest and can be considered to be a population counterpart of $r_S$.

On the other hand, the statistic $$T_n=\frac1{\binom{n}{2}}\sum_{1\le i<j\le n}\operatorname{sgn}(X_i-X_j)\operatorname{sgn}(Y_i-Y_j)$$ is exactly unbiased for its population counterpart, Kendall's tau:

$$\tau=E\left[\operatorname{sgn}(X_1-X_2)\operatorname{sgn}(Y_1-Y_2)\right]$$

If you note that

$$\sum_{j:j\ne i}\operatorname{sgn}(X_i-X_j)=(R_i-1)-(n-R_i)=2\left(R_i-\frac{n+1}2\right)$$

and similarly

$$\sum_{j:j\ne i}\operatorname{sgn}(Y_i-Y_j)=2\left(Q_i-\frac{n+1}2\right)\,,$$

we have this relation between $r_S$ and $T_n$:

\begin{align} r_S&=\frac{12}{n(n^2-1)}\sum_{i=1}^n \left(R_i-\frac{n+1}2\right)\left(Q_i-\frac{n+1}2\right) \\&=\frac3{n(n^2-1)}\sum_{i=1}^n \left\{\sum_{j\ne i}\operatorname{sgn}(X_i-X_j)\right\}\left\{\sum_{k\ne i}\operatorname{sgn}(Y_i-Y_k)\right\} \\&=\frac3{n+1}T_n+\frac{3(n-2)}{n+1}U_n\,, \tag{1} \end{align}

where $$U_n=\frac1{n(n-1)(n-2)}\sum_{i\ne j\ne k}\operatorname{sgn}(X_i-X_j)\operatorname{sgn}(Y_i-Y_k)$$

Using the independence of $X_2$ and $Y_3$, we can write

\begin{align} E(U_n)&=E\left[\operatorname{sgn}(X_1-X_2)\operatorname{sgn}(Y_1-Y_3)\right] \\&=E \left[ E\left[\operatorname{sgn}(X_1-X_2)\operatorname{sgn}(Y_1-Y_3)\right]\mid X_1,Y_1 \right] \\&=E \left[ E\left[\operatorname{sgn}(X_1-X_2)\mid X_1 \right] E\left[\operatorname{sgn}(Y_1-Y_3) \mid Y_1\right] \,\right] \\&=E\left[F(X_1)-(1-F(X_1))\right] \left[G(Y_1)-(1-G(Y_1))\right] \\&=4 E\left[F(X_1)-\frac12\right]\left[G(Y_1)-\frac12\right] \\&=\frac13 \rho_G \tag{2} \end{align}

Equations $(1)$ and $(2)$ then together imply $(\star)$.

Typically we are interested in testing the null hypothesis $$H_0: X \text{ and }Y \text{ are independently distributed}$$

Under $H_0$, we have $\rho_G=0$ as well as $\tau=0$, which implies $E_{H_0}(r_S)=0$. The variance under $H_0$ can be shown to be $\operatorname{Var}_{H_0}(r_S)=\frac1{n-1}$. A large sample test is then based on

$$\sqrt{n-1}\,r_S \stackrel{d}\longrightarrow N(0,1)\quad, \text{ under }H_0$$

Note however, that this is not a test for $\rho_G=0$ and it does not give confidence intervals for $\rho_G$ or $E(r_S)$ since the asymptotic distribution of $r_S$ is derived only under $H_0$.

Reference:

  • Nonparametric Statistical Inference (5th ed.) by Gibbons and Chakraborti, pages 416-421.

  • Nonparametric Statistical Methods (3rd ed.) by Hollander/Wolfe/Chicken, pages 427-440.

  • Statistical Inference Based on Ranks by T.P. Hettmansperger.

Related question: Spearman's correlation as a parameter.

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    $\begingroup$ I've heard it said that $\rho$ can be derived from the probability of majority concordance from among 3 observations, but I haven't been able to find that. $\endgroup$ Commented Oct 20, 2021 at 12:46
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    $\begingroup$ @Frank I recall there's a good discussion of this later in Nelsen's book on copulas. $\endgroup$
    – whuber
    Commented Oct 20, 2021 at 19:44

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