4
$\begingroup$

I am attempting to use simple linear regression to construct a 95% prediction interval for a continuous response variable (Y) using a continuous input variable (X). When examining my data, I realized that if I log-transform both X and Y, the assumptions of equal variance and normality are essentially met, but if I do not log transform both variables, they are not. I'm able to run all of the R code needed to get the prediction interval for the transformed data, and I've read online and elsewhere how to interpret this interval. However, is there a way to get a 95% prediction interval on the untransformed scale using the 95% prediction interval on the log-transformed scale? In other words, I'm interested in talking about the conditional mean response instead of the median response (which, according to what I've read, is how I must interpret my prediction interval). I could exponentiate the interval endpoints, but I'm fairly sure that's incorrect because E(e^{Y}) is usually not equal to e^{E(Y)}.

$\endgroup$

1 Answer 1

7
$\begingroup$

Back transform the endpoints. Quantiles are preserved if the transformation is monotonically increasing, so the probability coverage of $[e^L,e^U]$ on the untransformed scale is equal to the coverage of $[L,U]$ on the log scale.

The interval will not be the shortest possible interval, but it will have the required coverage.

$\endgroup$

Your Answer

By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you agree to our terms of service and acknowledge you have read our privacy policy.

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.