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Suppose I wanted to simulate the data generating process of a non-linear regression with ma(1) errors. So, without going into many unnecessary details, the model is

$$y_t = f(x_t,x_t-1,..., x_{t_0}, \beta_1, \beta_2) + \epsilon_t + \theta*\epsilon_{t-1}$$

where $\epsilon_t \sim N(0, \sigma^2)$.

The reason for doing this is that I want to test some non-linear estimation algorithms to compare their robustness and speed to each other. There are probably 4 of those but that's not important either.

My confusion is the following. Given some $\beta_1$ and $\beta_2$ and some $\theta$, I can generate the DGP of pretty straightforwardly because I have the $x_t$s.

But how do I deal with scaling the noise. By this I mean, how can I know what reasonable values for $\sigma^2$ are? For example, if I use too small of a $\sigma^2$, then my error term could end up being negligible and I ended with a deterministic relationship.

On the other hand, if I use too large of a $\sigma^2$, it could end up dominating the two other terms so that I end up generating an MA(1) model. It's not clear to me how to know what the scale for $\sigma^2$ should be.

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  • $\begingroup$ As presented in your question, there is no indication that you should scale $\sigma$ one way or the other. Do you have actual data to relate with? $\endgroup$
    – Xi'an
    Commented Dec 18, 2014 at 18:25
  • $\begingroup$ @Xi'an : I do have data so I plan on using something similar to what Aksakal proposed. $\endgroup$
    – mlofton
    Commented Dec 19, 2014 at 17:38
  • $\begingroup$ @Aksakal: I think it's just notational sematics. I could have said $y_t = f(.) + \gamma_t$ where $\gamma_t = \epsilon_t + \theta* \epsilon_{t-1}$. An MA(1) has the same noise term occurring twice on the RHS. $\endgroup$
    – mlofton
    Commented Dec 19, 2014 at 17:41
  • $\begingroup$ @Aksakal: I would rather use the $\epsilon_t+\theta\epsilon_{t-1}$ to keep with the traditional ARMA representation. $\endgroup$
    – Xi'an
    Commented Dec 19, 2014 at 17:41
  • $\begingroup$ @mlofton, I withdraw my comment, agree with you. $\endgroup$
    – Aksakal
    Commented Dec 19, 2014 at 18:34

2 Answers 2

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I would start with fraction of variance unexplained, and think of what would be a reasonable value for your domain. Maybe in your field you expect the models have VFU 20%. In this case you can use $\sigma^2\sim0.2Var[y_t]$ for errors.

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  • $\begingroup$ interesting: one idea I had which sounds similar is the following: take one of the data sets, estimate it blindly to get the estimated parameters. then back out the estimated variance using rss/n-k and use that as my sigmasquared hat and then set that sigmasquared hat = var(e_t) + gammasquared var(e_t) to back out var(e_t). is that similar to what you are saying ? if so, I don't understand the 0.2 but I'll click on link. thanks. $\endgroup$
    – mlofton
    Commented Dec 18, 2014 at 15:52
  • $\begingroup$ just clicked. I think I get what you are saying now. Is it the following: Calculate SSTOT. Then back out SSERR so that SSERR /SSTOT = 0.2 say. Then, calculate SSERR/n-k as the estimate of simgasquared. Then, set the estimate of sigmasquared to var(e_t) + gamma^2* var(e_t) to back out var(e_t) ? I hope that's right. thanks. $\endgroup$
    – mlofton
    Commented Dec 18, 2014 at 16:01
  • $\begingroup$ @mlofton, yes, something like that. The main idea is to base the variance of errors on some fraction of the variance of the dependent variable. The rest is details. I wouldn't worry about backing out exact sigma of errors from MA terms. All you need is to get the sensible sigma's range for simulation tests. $\endgroup$
    – Aksakal
    Commented Dec 18, 2014 at 16:17
  • $\begingroup$ great stuff. if this answer is any indication of the quality of this list, then it's an amazing list. thanks again. $\endgroup$
    – mlofton
    Commented Dec 18, 2014 at 16:23
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Just saw your question ... Please look at how to generate random time series for a given one, including all trends? for my suggestion as to how to simulate a series given its DGF ( read model form ! ) .

I determine the error variance from a useful model and then use it in conjunction with estimated model parameters to launch the simulation.

regards to a fellow time series enthusiast ...

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  • $\begingroup$ Thanks. I will check out the link. I don't remember exactly what I did at the time but it was something along the lines of what Aksakal recommended. $\endgroup$
    – mlofton
    Commented Sep 15, 2019 at 4:42

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