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My issue is with comparing p-values to confidence intervals. The different values being churned out are too great, and I don't understand why. So, an example to illustrate my problem:

A sample of size $n=100$ has mean $\bar{x}=1000$. The population has standard deviation $\sigma=5$. Is the population mean $\mu=990$ likely?

  1. So, $990$ has a $z$-score of $-2$, so the probability of the true mean $\mu$ lying between $1000\pm10$ is $1-0.2275\times2=0.545$.

  2. On the other hand, for a confidence interval to contain $990$ we require $z^{\ast}\geq20$, as we need $10\geq z^{\ast}\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\Rightarrow z^{\ast}\geq20$, which is silly!

Okay, so method (1) is flawed, as (I believe) there is a $0.545$ probability of a given sample point being in this range, not the mean of a given sample. But I don't understand why the difference is so huge - why the $z$-scores are so so different.

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  • $\begingroup$ Please add the self-study tag, and read its tag-wiki. $\endgroup$
    – Glen_b
    Commented Oct 29, 2015 at 12:31
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    $\begingroup$ Note that the z-score of the sample mean isn't 2. What's the standard deviation of a sample mean? $\endgroup$
    – Glen_b
    Commented Oct 29, 2015 at 12:31
  • $\begingroup$ Ah, so I should have used $(990-1000)/(\sigma/\sqrt{n})$? And as this is $-20$...Okay, I think my question then just boils down to "why is the standard deviation here $\sigma/\sqrt{n}$", and I can look that up. Thanks. $\endgroup$
    – user93495
    Commented Oct 29, 2015 at 12:47
  • $\begingroup$ Sounds like you got a sufficient hint from that, in which case I should make it the answer. $\endgroup$
    – Glen_b
    Commented Oct 29, 2015 at 15:34

1 Answer 1

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Keeping this in the form of guidance and hints:

Note that the z-score of the sample mean isn't 2.

When you calculate the correct standard deviation of a sample mean, you should be able to get the correct z-value.

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