My issue is with comparing p-values to confidence intervals. The different values being churned out are too great, and I don't understand why. So, an example to illustrate my problem:
A sample of size $n=100$ has mean $\bar{x}=1000$. The population has standard deviation $\sigma=5$. Is the population mean $\mu=990$ likely?
So, $990$ has a $z$-score of $-2$, so the probability of the true mean $\mu$ lying between $1000\pm10$ is $1-0.2275\times2=0.545$.
On the other hand, for a confidence interval to contain $990$ we require $z^{\ast}\geq20$, as we need $10\geq z^{\ast}\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\Rightarrow z^{\ast}\geq20$, which is silly!
Okay, so method (1) is flawed, as (I believe) there is a $0.545$ probability of a given sample point being in this range, not the mean of a given sample. But I don't understand why the difference is so huge - why the $z$-scores are so so different.
self-study
tag, and read its tag-wiki. $\endgroup$