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I'm doing simple rejection sampling within the Approximate Bayesian Computation framework, and I use regression adjustments (i.e., non-parametric multiple linear regression) to get closer to the true posterior. For some datasets, the parameter values inferred are outside the prior range.

Is that making these analyzes invalid? It seems to me that from the point of view of the Bayesian inference, the prior belief is something important, that cannot be avoided. I would like to build my intuition here about this situation, any insight?

Clearly, the extrapolation made by the non-parametric multiple linear regression is less informed, and consequently, the extrapolation should be less accurate. But from a practical point of view, expending the prior range also potentially necessitate to increase the sampling size to get as accurate and re-do the calibration step where the model error was estimated using that first prior range.

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    $\begingroup$ The prior is your prior belief. It appears that your prior belief was wrong. You do not recalibrate the prior because the data does not like it. Besides, you could just have a weird sample, in which case, the prior is protective. There should be at least some prior mass everywhere that is possible. The analysis is not invalid, but you will want to disclose the strength of the effect the prior had on the posterior. It may have little effect in practice. The data can overwhelm the prior. This is just a disclosure issue. $\endgroup$ Commented Nov 17, 2017 at 17:22
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    $\begingroup$ If you have zero mass on the prior range, however, you then have a problem. It is no different than being sure the Earth is flat and allowing a zero percent probability that it is round. That is a problem prior because you can never learn the truth. $\endgroup$ Commented Nov 17, 2017 at 17:24
  • $\begingroup$ Your question is hard to answer without further details. The prior may be incompatible with the data, the non-parametric regression can be poor, &tc. I would suggest running several ABC with different priors and with/without the postprocessing step to assess the impact of the different factors. $\endgroup$
    – Xi'an
    Commented Jan 4, 2018 at 7:46

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