0
$\begingroup$

This is my first post here. I am making a financial model in excel of the feasibility of a project. Herefore I need to make some assumptions. One of those assumptions would be the fuel price and how it could fluctuate in the future. I have taken the historical fuel prices of the last years (365 measurement points in total), and plotted them as a histogram chart. (See picture) Now I have to choose a distribution to use, basing on the historical data chart. However I cannot find out what type of chart this is? If anyone can help me with this, I would be very grateful.

Thank you a lot! G_Student94

This is the plotted histogram of the historical data.

Improve this question
$\endgroup$
1
  • 1
    $\begingroup$ For what purpose do you need the marginal distribution of the price? It doesn't seem clear that such a distribution even exists: it may change through time. $\endgroup$
    – Olivier
    Commented Jan 6, 2018 at 17:37

1 Answer 1

Reset to default
0
$\begingroup$

Use the futures market to see what the settlement prices are at future dates. To calculate how variable this is, look at the spread of settlement prices at some future date. This is relevant because if you really want to know ahead of time what the price will be, you would sign a contract at that price at some future data. That not only gives you access to accurate information, but it makes it fixed, that is, with no variability.

Improve this answer
$\endgroup$

Your Answer

By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you agree to our terms of service and acknowledge you have read our privacy policy.

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.