0
$\begingroup$

I am using a rank-ordered logit model to predict the winner of a multi-player game (think Fortnite). Among other individual-level factors (e.g., strength of each player, experience or number of games each player has played, etc.), I also have some historical data on past multi-player games, some of which might involve the players in the game I'm trying to predict. For example, today's game that I'm trying to predict has players A, B, C, D, & E of which from past history, I know that player A & B played in 3 of the same multi-player games with A scoring higher than B 2 out of 3 times.

My question is, what approach(es) might I consider to incorporate this matrix of past head to head results into my predictions for today's game? In many instances, the players in today's game haven't played in the same game with each other before, but in some instances they may have. Also, as noted, in addition to these head to head results, I also have individual-level data that I would like to incorporate in my prediction.

Thanks for your help!

Improve this question
$\endgroup$
2
  • $\begingroup$ This is going to be quite hard to predict. $\endgroup$
    – user2974951
    Commented Sep 20, 2019 at 7:05
  • $\begingroup$ Yeah. My current model consisting of individual-level factors is pretty robust, but I was hoping to also layer on the information from past results where the players may have competed in the same game. As I mentioned this information is more sparse, but there should be some way to use it. After all, it would seem relevant that if A played better than B that this is information that should be used for at least tweaking the relative probability of A vs. B. The challenge is at the same time, I wouldn't want to change the probabilities on the other players if they didn't compete against A or B. $\endgroup$
    – newcoder
    Commented Sep 20, 2019 at 15:54

0

Reset to default

Your Answer

By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you agree to our terms of service and acknowledge you have read our privacy policy.

Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.