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I came across a paper in which the authors are interested in parameter estimation but they use an unusual estimator that I never encounter before. Given a parameter $\theta$ to estimate and a likelihood function $\mathcal{L}(\theta)$ given a certain sample, the authors calculate the following estimate $\hat{\theta}$: $$ \hat{\theta} = \frac{\int \theta\, \mathcal{L}(\theta)\, d \theta}{\int \mathcal{L}(\theta)\, d \theta} $$ In other words, that estimator seems to calculate some kind of mean value for the parameter as if the likelihood function was the probability density function for that parameter (which we know it is not...)

My question is just: have anyone ever encounter that estimator before? What are its properties in terms of consistency, efficiency, etc...

Thanks in advance.

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    $\begingroup$ What's the paper? $\endgroup$
    – jcken
    Commented Jun 14, 2020 at 18:15
  • $\begingroup$ It's a preprint; a paper I have to review actually. Unfortunately, I cannot share it though... $\endgroup$
    – coussin
    Commented Jun 15, 2020 at 14:14

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Under a weak improper prior $\pi (\theta) \propto 1$ the posterior is $\pi (\theta | x ) \propto \mathcal{L} (\theta)$ and then the normalising constant is just $\int \mathcal{L}(\theta) d\theta$. Hence, the posterior expectation is \begin{align*} E(\theta|x) & = \int \theta \pi(\theta | x) d\theta \\ & = \int \frac{\theta \mathcal{L}(\theta)}{\int \mathcal{L}(\theta) d\theta} d\theta \\ & = \frac{\int \theta \mathcal{L}(\theta) d\theta}{\int \mathcal{L}(\theta) d\theta} \end{align*}

So $\hat{\theta}$ is can be interpreted as the posterior expectation of $\theta$ under the improper prior $\pi(\theta) \propto 1$. Wikipedia tells me this is the ''generalised Bayes estimator''. Unfortunately, I don't know much about the generalised bayes estimator but know that we know it's a thing then someone else on stackexchange can help us find out more about it!

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  • $\begingroup$ Thank you for your answer. My own research came to the same conclusion: that estimator is nothing more than a MMSE under a prior equal to 1. $\endgroup$
    – coussin
    Commented Jun 15, 2020 at 20:43

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