I was reading some papers and I found some parts are tricky to understand.
Assume I have price data , what does it mean to calculate the conditional mean of the price data given yesterday price ? does that mean the price is known? I know to calculate the expectation of the price I sum all the prices then divide them by the number of observation, is this is the same ?
I also came up by the terminology of conditional quantile of the price data , where the simplest way to estimate it rely on the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE). I found it interesting but I could not understand how to estimate the conditional quantile by Maximum Likelihood Estimation. can anyone help me with some explanations and examples to understand. I read several papers but I could not understand.