I am studying the cointegration between retail prices of pork. In an economical theory this should have a positive relationship. However, when I tested for cointegration using Johansen in Eviews, it only appears to be cointegrated at Case 4 and 5 where there is a linear trend in the cointegrating equation. When I tried to estimate the VECM, it showed me that there is a negative relationship between the prices and a positive trend. What seems to be the problem with this and how can I fix it?
This is the results of the VECM when I use the Case 4 of Johansen, as it appears to be cointegrated with trend.
Cointegrating Eq: CointEq1
C_R(-1) 1.000000
NCR_R(-1) 0.810135
(0.13148)
[ 6.16153]
@TREND(1) -1.212315
(0.08452)
[-14.3441]
C -401.4768
Error Correction: D(C_R) D(NCR_R)
CointEq1 -0.318874 -0.043231
(0.05565) (0.01781)
[-5.73006] [-2.42791]
D(C_R(-1)) 0.325381 -0.026421
(0.08673) (0.02775)
[ 3.75181] [-0.95211]
D(C_R(-2)) 0.297387 -0.004909
(0.09267) (0.02965)
[ 3.20902] [-0.16555]
D(NCR_R(-1)) 0.454352 0.282226
(0.29558) (0.09457)
[ 1.53718] [ 2.98416]
D(NCR_R(-2)) -0.910092 0.089290
(0.29257) (0.09361)
[-3.11066] [ 0.95381]
C 0.513729 0.286834
(0.51764) (0.16563)
[ 0.99245] [ 1.73181]
Notice how it has a negative relationship with a positive trend. On another note, this also happen when I use OLS in regression.
Dependent Variable: C_R
Method: Least Squares
Sample: 1 120
Included observations: 120
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
NCR_R 0.788551 0.101903 7.738264 0.0000
C 48.57702 27.27814 1.780804 0.0775
R-squared 0.336634 Mean dependent var 258.9932
Adjusted R-squared 0.331012 S.D. dependent var 29.07133
S.E. of regression 23.77792 Akaike info criterion 9.191918
Sum squared resid 66715.96 Schwarz criterion 9.238376
Log likelihood -549.5151 Hannan-Quinn criter. 9.210785
F-statistic 59.88074 Durbin-Watson stat 0.066291
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
There seems to be a positive relationship, however when I add a @trend in the regression equation it becomes a negative relationship with a positive trend, just like the results of Johansen cointegration, Case 4 with restricted trend.
Dependent Variable: C_R
Method: Least Squares
Sample: 1 120
Included observations: 120
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
NCR_R -0.703379 0.079795 -8.814858 0.0000
C 381.0169 18.95859 20.09732 0.0000
@TREND 1.103617 0.049068 22.49174 0.0000
R-squared 0.875395 Mean dependent var 258.9932
Adjusted R-squared 0.873265 S.D. dependent var 29.07133
S.E. of regression 10.34936 Akaike info criterion 7.536408
Sum squared resid 12531.77 Schwarz criterion 7.606095
Log likelihood -449.1845 Hannan-Quinn criter. 7.564708
F-statistic 410.9832 Durbin-Watson stat 0.417294
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
What seems to be the problem?