6
$\begingroup$

Given $X_{1},\dots,X_{n}$ i.i.d. $\sim N(μ,σ^{2})$, it's known that a confidence interval for the variance with $1-\alpha$ confidence is as it follows $$\sigma^2\in\Biggl(\frac{(n-1)S_{n}^{2}}{\chi^{2}_{n-1,\alpha/2}},\frac{(n-1)S_{n}^{2}}{\chi^{2}_{n-1,1-\alpha/2}}\Bigg)=(A_{n},B_{n}). $$

I'm asked to compute $$\lim_{n \to \infty}P\Bigl(\sigma^2\in(A_{n},B_{n})\Bigr),$$ taking into account that $X_{1},\dots,X_{n},\dots,$ are i.i.d. (but not necessarily normal) and $\mathbb{E}(X_{1}^{4})<\infty.$.

I know that $\sqrt{n} (S_n^2 - \sigma^2) \rightarrow_{d} \text{N}(0, \sigma^4 (\kappa - 1)),$ where $\kappa=\mu_4/\sigma^{4}$ and $\mu_4 = E(X_i -\mu)^4$, but I have no clue in how to continue. Could you give me some ideas?

$\endgroup$
1
  • 2
    $\begingroup$ To be more accurate, the statement "It's known that ..." should be "Given $X_1, \ldots, X_n \text{ i.i.d. } \sim N(\mu, \sigma^2)$, it's known that ...". $\endgroup$
    – Zhanxiong
    Commented Dec 12, 2022 at 4:33

1 Answer 1

6
$\begingroup$

Denote $\chi^2_{n - 1, \alpha/2}$ and $\chi^2_{n - 1, 1 - \alpha/2}$ by $\xi_n$ and $\eta_n$ respectively. In the following we show that as $n \to \infty$, \begin{align} P[A_n \geq \sigma^2] = P[(n - 1)S_n^2/\sigma^2 \geq \xi_n] \to \Phi\left(-\sqrt{2}\sigma^2z_{\alpha/2}/\tau\right), \tag{1} \end{align} where $\Phi$ is the cdf of the standard normal distribution, $z_{\alpha/2} = \Phi^{-1}(1 - \alpha/2), \tau^2 = \sigma^4(\kappa - 1)$.

To prove $(1)$, we first show that \begin{align} \xi_n = (n - 1) + \sqrt{2(n - 1)}(z_{\alpha/2} + o(1)). \tag{2} \end{align} To show $(2)$, note that provided $Y_n \sim \chi^2_{n - 1}$, CLT implies that \begin{align} Z_n := \frac{Y_n - (n - 1)}{\sqrt{2(n - 1)}}\to_d N(0, 1), \end{align} whence \begin{align} \xi_n &= F_{Y_n}^{-1}(1 - \alpha/2) = (n - 1) + \sqrt{2(n - 1)}F_{Z_n}^{-1}(1 - \alpha/2) \\ &= (n - 1) + \sqrt{2(n - 1)}(z_{\alpha/2} + o(1)), \end{align} i.e., $(2)$ holds.

By $\Delta_n := \sqrt{n}(S_n^2 - \sigma^2)/\tau \to_d N(0, 1)$ and Polya's Theorem, we have \begin{align} \sup_{x \in \mathbb{R}}|F_{\Delta_n}(x) - \Phi(x)| \to 0 \tag{3} \end{align} as $n \to \infty$. It then follows that \begin{align} & \left|P[(n - 1)S_n^2/\sigma^2 \geq \xi_n] - \Phi\left(-\sqrt{2}\sigma^2z_{\alpha/2}/\tau\right)\right| \\ =& \left|P[\Delta_n \geq \sqrt{n}\tau^{-1}((n - 1)^{-1}\xi_n - 1)\sigma^2] - \Phi\left(-\sqrt{2}\sigma^2z_{\alpha/2}/\tau\right)\right| \\ \leq & |F_{\Delta_n}(\sqrt{n}\tau^{-1}((n - 1)^{-1}\xi_n - 1)\sigma^2) - \Phi(\sqrt{n}\tau^{-1}((n - 1)^{-1}\xi_n - 1)\sigma^2)| + o(1) \\ &+ |\Phi(-\sqrt{n}\tau^{-1}((n - 1)^{-1}\xi_n - 1)\sigma^2) - \Phi\left(-\sqrt{2}\sigma^2z_{\alpha/2}/\tau\right)| \\ \leq & \sup_{x \in \mathbb{R}}|F_{\Delta_n}(x) - \Phi(x)| + o(1) \\ &+ |\Phi(-\sqrt{n}\tau^{-1}((n - 1)^{-1}\xi_n - 1)\sigma^2) - \Phi\left(-\sqrt{2}\sigma^2z_{\alpha/2}/\tau\right)| \\ \to & 0 \end{align} as $n \to \infty$. The "$o(1)$" term stands for $P[\Delta_n = \sqrt{n}\tau^{-1}((n - 1)^{-1}\xi_n - 1)\sigma^2)]$, which tends to $0$ as $n \to \infty$. The last step is a consequence of $(2)$ and $(3)$.

By the similar argument, it can be shown that \begin{align} P[B_n \leq \sigma^2] = P[(n - 1)S_n^2/\sigma^2 \leq \eta_n] \to \Phi\left(-\sqrt{2}\sigma^2z_{\alpha/2}/\tau\right). \end{align} Therefore, \begin{align} P[A_n < \sigma^2 < B_n] = 1 - P[A_n \geq \sigma^2] - P[B_n \leq \sigma^2] \to 1 - 2\Phi\left(-\sqrt{2}\sigma^2z_{\alpha/2}/\tau\right). \end{align}

The above asymptotic result may be verified by considering $X_1, \ldots, X_n \text{ i.i.d. } \sim N(\mu, \sigma^2)$, for which case $\tau^2 = 2\sigma^4$, whence $P[A_n < \sigma^2 < B_n] \to 1 - \alpha$. On the other hand, it is well-known that $(A_n, B_n)$ is the exact $1 - \alpha$ confidence interval for $\sigma^2$ under the normality condition.

$\endgroup$
1
  • 1
    $\begingroup$ As I understand, in the OP "it is known" suggests that the statement is admitted. If so, it would be a very basic exercise... Yet quite puzzling is the absence of the word 'asymptotic' in the statement. $\endgroup$
    – Yves
    Commented Dec 12, 2022 at 7:36

Your Answer

By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you agree to our terms of service and acknowledge you have read our privacy policy.

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.