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I understand the equation for observed $Q$:

$$ \Large Q = \sum_{i=1}^k \frac{1}{V_i} (Y_i - M)^2 $$

But I don't understand why the expected $Q$ is just the degrees of freedom ($k - 1$), where $k$ is the number of studies.

The reason I kept seeing is that because $Q$ is a standardized metric or because we divide each deviation by the variance for its study, the expected $Q$ for our group of studies is the degrees of freedom, $k-1$. Can someone explain or provide a proof for the expected $Q$?

Update: Thanks for the responses! Yi is each effect size, M is the summary effect size (the meta-analytic average effect size; mean effect size weighted by the inverse of variance), Vi is the variance of each effect size, k is the total number of studies, Q is the observed Q-statistics

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    $\begingroup$ Your question would be clearer if you defined what the terms in the equation mean. $\endgroup$ Commented Mar 5 at 0:53
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    $\begingroup$ This is a very relevant paper https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/sim.3428 $\endgroup$
    – User33
    Commented Mar 5 at 9:55
  • $\begingroup$ In the simplest application each $Y_i$ has a Binomial distribution with parameters $N$ (the sum of the $V_i$) and $Vi/N,$ whence the expectation of $Q$ is a weighted sum of the variances of these distributions: that works out to $k-1.$ Your use of "$M$" instead of the usual "$V_i,"$ though, casts doubt on what circumstances you are contemplating and what your symbols might refer to. Could you explain? $\endgroup$
    – whuber
    Commented Mar 5 at 18:21
  • $\begingroup$ @whuber thank you so much for your response! I added what the notation means. This is in the context of meta-analysis, so M is the summary effect size. I think your explanation is helping a bit though...still trying to digest. my other explanation is this: because Q is based on the chi-square test of variance, which is defined by sample variance/population variance * DF, and because Q is standardized metric, it's 1/1*DF, so it comes to just DF? $\endgroup$ Commented Mar 6 at 16:10
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    $\begingroup$ Re (a) yes, inverse variance-weighted arithmetic mean of Yi's; and (b) yes as well, the Q's null hypothesis is that all the Yi come from one true effect size and the only variations come from sampling error. Thanks again for your help! $\endgroup$ Commented Mar 6 at 17:42

2 Answers 2

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Assume the "summary effect size" is the inverse variance weighted mean

$$M = \frac{1}{\sum_{i=1}^k (1/V_i)}\sum_{i=1}^k \frac{Y_i}{V_i} = \sum_{i=1}^k \omega_i Y_i$$

(thereby defining the weights $\omega_i$ as a notational convenience). Let $\Omega$ be the denominator

$$\Omega = \sum_{i=1}^k \frac{1}{V_i}$$

so that

$$\omega_i = \frac{1/V_i}{\Omega}.$$

We will need to do some algebra. Observe, for later, that

$$\sum_{i=1}^k \omega_i = 1$$

and

$$\Omega \omega_i V_i = \Omega \frac{1/V_i}{\Omega} V_i = 1.$$

I will use these relations repeatedly without further comment.


One of the least painful approaches begins by expanding the terms of $Q$ as

$$\frac{1}{V_i}(Y_i-M)^2 = \Omega\omega_i\left(Y_i - \sum_{j=1}^k \omega_jY_j\right)^2=\Omega\omega_i\left((1-\omega_i)^2Y_i^2 + \sum_{j\ne i}\omega_j^2 Y_j^2 + \cdots\right)$$

where "$\cdots$" comprises multiples of the cross-products $Y_iY_j$ for $j\ne i.$ Assuming all the $Y_i$ have a common expectation $\mu,$ notice that changing the units of measurement of the $Y_i$ by subtracting $\mu$ from them does not change the foregoing values, because (i) the variances $V_i$ remain the same; and because the weights $\omega_i$ sum to unity, (ii) $M$ changes to

$$M^\prime = \sum_{i=1}^k \omega_i (Y_i - \mu) = \left(\sum_{i=1}^k \omega_i Y_i\right) - \mu.$$

The terms $Y_i-M$ thereby change to $(Y_i-\mu)-(M-\mu) = Y_i-M:$ that is, they are unaltered. Thus, with no loss of generality, we may assume the expectation of each $Y_i$ is zero, whence

$$V_i = \operatorname{Var}(Y_i) = E[Y_i^2]$$

and for $i\ne j,$

$$E[Y_iY_j] = (0)(0) = 0$$

(by independence) . Upon taking the expectation of $Q,$ then, those cross-terms all drop out (which is why we didn't need to compute their coefficients), leaving

$$E[Q] = \sum_{i=1}^k \Omega\omega_i E\left[(1-\omega_i)^2Y_i^2 + \sum_{j\ne i}\omega_j^2 Y_j^2 + \cdots\right] = \sum_{i=1}^k \Omega\omega_i\left((1-\omega_i)^2 V_i + \sum_{j\ne i} \omega_j^2 V_j\right).$$

As written, this has been expressed as a linear combination of the $V_i.$ By inspection, the coefficient of any particular $V_i$ is the sum of the coefficient from the $i^\text{th}$ term plus all the coefficients of $V_i$ that show up in the second sum. The total contribution (including the factor of $V_i$) to the expectation is

$$\Omega \omega_i V_i \left((1-\omega_i)^2 + \omega_i\sum_{j\ne i}\omega_j\right) =(1-\omega_i)^2 + \omega_i(1-\omega_i) = 1-\omega_i. $$

Consequently

$$E[Q] = \sum_{i=1}^k (1-\omega_i) = k - \sum_{i=1}^k \omega_i = k-1,$$

QED.


NB: This proof requires no knowledge of the distribution of $Q$. That's good, because $Q$ rarely has a chi-squared distribution. But when the $Y_i$ are independent Normal variables with common expectation, then $Q$ does turn out to have a chi-squared distribution. (This is not immediately evident, because $Q$ is explicitly the sum of non-independent terms due to the common appearance of $M$ in each numerator. This result is a consequence of Cochran's Theorem.)

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  • $\begingroup$ thank you so much for writing this out so clearly! I wanted to vote up, but don't have the reputation to. This is so helpful, thank you for your kindness. $\endgroup$ Commented Mar 12 at 20:09
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Here's a quick and simple explanation.

Q is chi-square distributed. The expected value of chi-square under the null hypothesis is the degrees of freedom.

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