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12 votes
3 answers
2k views

Is it possible to have seasonality at 24, 12, 8 periods in hourly based wind power data?

I have taken hourly-based wind power data, by taking its periodogram after making it stationary in R. It gives me four seasonal patterns at periods of 24, 12, 08, and 06, as shown in the figure below. ...
Mastoi's user avatar
  • 123
0 votes
0 answers
69 views

Stan: modulated distribution

I am modeling a process where events happen every X days with X following a gamma distribution. I already have a model for that ...
salva's user avatar
  • 31
2 votes
1 answer
406 views

Seasonal ARIMA vs ARIMA with Fourier terms for monthly series

I have monthly data and my goal is to forecast values with an inclusion of exogenous variables. I've built SARIMA and Dynamic Harmonic Regression models, where the second one performs little bit ...
Tom's user avatar
  • 511
2 votes
1 answer
2k views

Looking for repeated patterns in time series data

I have spent the best part of the last few days searching forums and reading papers trying to solve the following question. I have thousands of time series arrays each of varying lengths containing a ...
Dexter Jeffery's user avatar
4 votes
2 answers
1k views

How to identify a non-periodic time-series?

I am working on a problem where I have to first classify whether a time-series is periodic or not and then, if it is periodic identify its period(s) (the time-series could have multiple periodicities, ...
Hari's user avatar
  • 275
1 vote
0 answers
2k views

Model specification for seasonal ARMA-GARCH model using rugarch

TL;DR: I'm trying to find an adequate model for time series data that exhibits multiplicative seasonality and volatility clustering by identifying an ARMA-GARCH-model with Fourier terms using ...
Christopher Arnold's user avatar
3 votes
1 answer
2k views

Why SARIMA has better accuracy on weekly dataset than on daily one?

I am studying time series right now. So, I have this dataset. My aim is temperature prediction. I've found out that ARIMA can't work with long period seasonality. So, I've resampled daily dataset ...
Yoskutik's user avatar
  • 160
2 votes
0 answers
324 views

Measuring weather impact on sales as a crossed random effect

I'm trying to model sales of a clothing brand having longitudinal data (unbalanced panel: 20 stores with 50 - 157 weeks of datapoints). There are many regressors in my analysis, but I believe that ...
Freejack's user avatar
  • 133
1 vote
1 answer
1k views

tbats() model not capturing seasonality (weekly data)

I have below 4 years of weekly data which has complex seasonality of varying seasonal length. I have assigned the first 160 data points as training and the rest as test with frequency=52. It seems ...
Arsa Nikzad's user avatar
2 votes
0 answers
200 views

Deseasonalizing a time series using a Wiener-Kolmogorov filter

I am trying to eliminate seasonality from a time series using Wiener-Kolmogorov filter, I am following the methodology explained in here this paper about signal extraction which is the same followed ...
Datanalyst's user avatar
1 vote
1 answer
2k views

Deseasonalizing data with fourier analysis using MATLAB [closed]

I am trying to eliminate seasonality from my data using Fourier analysis in MATLAB. Following this post https://stackoverflow.com/questions/19285684/fast-fourier-transform-for-deasonalizing-data-in-...
Datanalyst's user avatar
1 vote
0 answers
2k views

Finding repeating patterns and their periods

I have a list of user-generated events stored together with the time it occurred. FWIW, the average is 216 event per day and a total of approximately 800000 events. My goal is simply to find the ...
Celelibi's user avatar
  • 111
8 votes
3 answers
5k views

Deseasonalizing data with fourier analysis

I have a data which has two underlying behavior. First there is a periodicity in it. It looks like a sine curve. Secondly the data points have constant growth in it. So, if I have 100 data points ...
user1243255's user avatar
2 votes
1 answer
1k views

fourier terms for double seasonality in R [closed]

I am performing a time series analysis on a daily time series. I know that there is a weekly period (7 days) and also a montly seasonality. For now, i set the time series object in R using a ...
Giorgio Spedicato's user avatar
6 votes
1 answer
8k views

How to identify the seasonality of a timeseries from the Periodogram?

I need to identify seasonality/ periodicity of a dataset so as to develop an ARMAX model. This is what the original time-series looks like I have plotted the periodogram of the dataset. Ps: I used ...
Spandyie's user avatar
  • 422
4 votes
1 answer
6k views

Finding cycles in data using a periodogram and Fast Fourier Transform

Problem: Detecting cyclical patterns in daily data using periodogram and FFT. The issue is how to code in R the periodogram to detect monthly, quarterly, semi-annual, annual..etc cyclical patterns in ...
Oniropolo's user avatar
  • 141
19 votes
1 answer
2k views

Problem defining ARIMA order

This is a long post so I hope you can bear with me, and please correct me where I'm wrong. My goal is to produce a daily forecast based on 3 or 4 weeks of historical data. The data is 15 minute ...
Peter Nijhuis's user avatar