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1 vote
1 answer
87 views

How do you determine an appropriate block length for calculating "block maxima" for GEV distribution?

I have some time series data spanning 30+ years and I am trying to do some extreme value analysis. Major disclaimer: I am not a statistician so I feel that I am wading into waters beyond my area of ...
Darcy's user avatar
  • 925
1 vote
1 answer
238 views

What are arguments against using the (log-)likelihood as a loss function?

Context: My goal is to fit a GEV distribution function to data $z$, where the location parameter is parametrised as linear combination of predictor variables $\mu(\vec{x}) = \mu_0 + \mu_1 x_1 + ...$ (...
Joel's user avatar
  • 85
1 vote
0 answers
21 views

What do you recommend to see if my data fits Minimum Extreme Value distribution?

I have the following data: ...
sango's user avatar
  • 111
0 votes
1 answer
109 views

Compare return levels of fitted GPD using MLE in different R packages

This question is related to this post: Different quantiles of a fitted GPD in different R packages? I want to constraint "potvalues" data to be in a period of 6 years, this is, 16 observations per ...
alexyshr's user avatar
5 votes
3 answers
756 views

Are there theoretical reasons for choosing between similar distributions?

I'm interested in estimating the distributions of a few skewed datasets, for example extreme heat, and extreme rainfall. There are many distributions that can be fit to these kinds of data, for ...
naught101's user avatar
  • 5,541
5 votes
2 answers
868 views

Maximum likelihood and Gumbel distribution. Does the likelihood have a global maximum?

It appears to me that if I move the mode $u$ more to the negative and increase the scale parameter $\alpha$, one can get always a higher likelihood. If this is true, is there a limit of the likelihood?...
Harald Thomson's user avatar
2 votes
0 answers
135 views

Interpret the result of a fitted non-stationary Gumbel model

I have a dataset on wildfires that I fitted to a Gumbel distribution with a set of covariates (using the gevrFit function in the eva package in R). The result of ...
nilesguo's user avatar
25 votes
2 answers
1k views

Fitting custom distributions by MLE

My question relates to fitting custom distributions in R but I feel it has enough of a probability element to remain on CV. I have an interesting set of data which has the following characteristics: ...
statsplease's user avatar
  • 2,901
2 votes
0 answers
312 views

How to train a generalized extreme value model for anomaly detection?

Background I am building an anomaly detection solution. So far I used the simple z-score (#std from mean) approach. The latter implicitly assumes an underlying stationary Gaussian model. However, the ...
Hanan Shteingart's user avatar
1 vote
3 answers
2k views

Fitting a GEV distribution - non-negative only

I am fitting a GEV distribution to some rainfall data, but the software I am using (Matlab and Easyfit) are giving a distribution which includes negative numbers (i.e. negative rainfall). Is there a ...
emmalgale's user avatar
1 vote
0 answers
99 views

Fitting of bivariate data to a self-defined probability density function

I have a bivariate set of data points which I want to fit to a self-defined distribution (i.e. not standard normal or chi-square or like that, a different, let's say "new" density function). I would ...
Scrofungulus's user avatar