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31
votes
2
answers
116k
views
How to interpret these acf and pacf plots
ACF and PACF plot analysis
Help interpreting ACF- and PACF-plots
Help understanding the following picture of ACF
Autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation interpretation
Edit: following is the graph … Only acf/pacf plots of residuals was referred to in a couple of places. …
25
votes
3
answers
77k
views
Analyse ACF and PACF plots
I want to see if I am on the right track analysing my ACF and PACF plots:
Background: (Reff: Philip Hans Franses, 1998)
As both ACF and PACF show significant values, I assume that an ARMA-model will … sufficiently, b.) whether the ACF signals overdifferencing and c.) whether the ACF and PACF show any significant and easily interpretable peaks at certain lags
ACF and PACF might suggest not only one …
23
votes
1
answer
29k
views
How to interpret negative ACF (autocorrelation function)?
So I plotted the ACF/PACF of oil returns and was expecting to see some positive autocorrelation but to my surprise I only get negative significant autocorrelation. … How should I interpret the above graph? They seem to indicate that there is a tendency for oil returns to increase when it decreased previously and vice-versa, thus the oscillating behaviour. …
11
votes
1
answer
3k
views
A simple explanation of PACF plot
I am presenting some ACF and PACF plots to colleagues. … I can explain how to interpret the plots and how to determine p and q based on what the plots look like, but I cannot find a simple intuitive explanation of what a PACF plot actually means. …
11
votes
2
answers
6k
views
Interpreting seasonality with ACF and PACF
10253280}, {{2012, 11, 12}, 10240672}, {{2012, 11, 06},
9723456}, {{2012, 11, 13}, 9806880}, {{2012, 10, 16},
12368896}, {{2012, 11, 18}, 9632800}, {{2012, 10, 27}, 10606656}}]
... and the ACF … :
... and the PACF: …
11
votes
2
answers
16k
views
ACF and PACF of residuals to determine ARIMA model
I'm having trouble interpreting an ACF/PACF plot of the residuals of a regression to determine what the corresponding ARIMA model would be for the error term. … This is the plot of the ACF/PACF of the regression. …
10
votes
2
answers
32k
views
How to interpret ACF and PACF plots
I just want to check that I am interpreting the ACF and PACF plots correctly:
The data corresponds to the errors generated between the actual data points and the estimates generated using an AR(1) … For the ACF this is the case but for the PACF there are about 10 exceptions. If you include those on the border it's more like 14? Does this still indicate no auto-correlation?
3.) …
10
votes
2
answers
33k
views
Interpreting ACF and PACF Plot
The ACF shows a positive impact of the first lagged term while the PACF shows a negative impact? Could someone help me interpret this? I'm trying to better understand ARIMA. … The examples I've seen about PACF and ACF always seem to show the two at least agreeing in direction. …
10
votes
2
answers
31k
views
Interpreting seasonality in ACF and PACF plots
It is obvious that there is still a seasonal component to the data from the ACF plot.
I then tried to use differencing to remove the seasonal component. … How do I interpret the seasonality of the Log differenced plot and model the data ? …
5
votes
1
answer
7k
views
Autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation interpretation
I am learning about ACF and PACF graphs. I am not sure I understand how to interpret the one I got for my data. … I have searched google for some ACF and PACF examples, and I found some samples of different processes, however, the one I am getting doesn't look similar to any. …
5
votes
1
answer
17k
views
How to set (p,d,q) and (P,D,Q) for SARIMA time series model
usp=sharing
The plot below shows the series:
The ACF and PACF plots are shown below:
The ACF clearly shows yearly seasonality (12 periods). … I have tried to use first-differencing and second-differencing (in case either one or both are needed), below is the respective ACF and PACF plot:
My question is:
How to interpret the PACF plot of …
4
votes
2
answers
11k
views
Help interpreting ACF- and PACF-plots
My ACF- and PACF plots are illustrated below:
The first one is in original scale and the second picture is zoomed. What process would you classify this? AR, MA or ARMA? …
4
votes
2
answers
2k
views
How to interpret serial autocorrelations and AR models
New analysis
I have now plotted the PACF and it looks as follows:
As you can see, it looks fairly similar to the ACF. … (as.numeric(BTC$log_returns), main="ACF of Bitcoin log return series") # Higher order autocorrelation I would say
Pacf(as.numeric(BTC$log_returns), main="Partial ACF of Bitcoin log return series")
#The …
3
votes
2
answers
1k
views
Residuals of SARIMA follow Student's $t$ distribution - implications?
The diagnostics of the residuals are all good (ACF, PACF, ...), i.e. it seems they behave like white noise.
But when I plot the normal qq-plot, they seem to be asymmetrically distributed. … My only problem is that now, I do not know how to interpret this result.
What does it mean for the residuals to follow a Student's $t$ distribution? …
3
votes
1
answer
2k
views
How do I interpret regression coefficients with autocorrelated residuals?
0.1150526
My question is this: based on the parameter estimates and s.e. of the regressors, I believe that none of them are significant - is this correct, and if so, what does it imply if my goal is to interpret … Here are the ACF and PACF for the residuals:
> durbinWatsonTest(mod.ols, max.lag=12)
lag Autocorrelation D-W Statistic p-value
1 0.120522674 1.6705144 0.106
2 0.212723044 1.4816530 …