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Time series are data observed over time (either in continuous time or at discrete time periods).
39
votes
Accepted
How to statistically compare two time series?
As others have stated, you need to have a common frequency of measurement (i.e. the time between observations). With that in place I would identify a common model that would reasonably describe each s …
33
votes
Seeking certain type of ARIMA explanation
I will try and respond to the gentle urging of whuber to simply “respond to the question” and stay on topic. We are given 144 monthly readings of a series called “The Airline Series” . Box and Jenkins …
25
votes
Accepted
How to know if a time series is stationary or non-stationary?
Testing if a series is stationary versus non-stationary requires that you consider a sequence of alternative hypotheses, one for each listable Gaussian Assumption.
One has to understand that the Gauss …
19
votes
Auto.arima with daily data: how to capture seasonality/periodicity?
The problem with fitting seasonal ARIMA to daily data is that the "seasonal component" may only operate on the weekends or maybe just the weekdays thus overall there is a non-significnat "seasonal com …
17
votes
Accepted
Is Prophet from Facebook any different from a linear regression?
The issue here is to get to an equation that parses the observed data to signal and noise. If your data is simple then your regression approach might work. Care should be taken to understand some of t …
17
votes
Analyse ACF and PACF plots
The sole reliance on the ACF and PACF using tools suggested in the mid 60's is sometimes but seldomly correct except for simulated data. Model Identification tools like AIC/BIC almost never correctly …
17
votes
Is it possible to automate time series forecasting?
My suggested approach encompasses models that are much more general than ARIMA as they include the potential for seasonal dummies that may change over time , multiple levels ,multiple trends , paramet …
16
votes
Accepted
PACF manual calculation
As you said "The PACF values are the coefficients of an autoregression of the series of interest on lagged values of the series" and I add where the PACF(K) is the coefficient of the last (kth) lag. T …
14
votes
Accepted
Whether a AR(P) process is stationary or not?
Extract the roots of the polynomial. If all the roots are outside the unit circle then the process is stationary. Model identification aids can be found on the web. Fundamentally the pattern of the AC …
13
votes
Analysis of time series with many zero values
To restate your question “ How does the analyst deal with long periods of no demand that follow no specific pattern?”
The answer to your question is Intermittent Demand Analysis or Sparse Data Analys …
13
votes
Accepted
Estimate ARMA coefficients through ACF and PACF inspection
My answer is really an abridgement of javlacelle's but is is too long for a simple comment but not too short to be useless.
While jvlacelle's response is technically correct at one level it "overly s …
13
votes
Accepted
How to interpret these acf and pacf plots
looking at plots in order to try to pigeonhole the data into a guessed arima model works well when 1: There are no outliers/pulses/level shifts, local time trends and no seasonal deterministic pulses …
11
votes
Correlating volume timeseries
The correlation coefficient between time series is useless. See CORRELATION COEFFICIENT - Critical values for Testing Significance. This was first pointed out by U. Yule in 1926 Yule, G.U, 1926, "Why …
11
votes
What are the assumptions of ARIMA/Box-Jenkins modeling for forecasting time series?
There are no known/suspected predictor variables
There are no level shifts
There are no deterministic time trends of the form $1,2,3,...,t$
There are no seasonal dummies
There are no one time anoma …
11
votes
How to detect structural change in a timeseries
Change Points can arise from a number of possible causes. Each of the possible causes can be evaluated. In terms of increasing complexity : 1. detecting a change in the expected value is essentially I …