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Per the Wikipedia article on Elo ratings:

The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.

This makes no mention of these probabilities being dependent on the K factor, is this correct?

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K-factor does not affect the winning probabilities.

The K-factor enters when you are updating the Elo rating based on results from new games, it determine how big the change will be. When winning\losing a game, A player can gain\lose up to the K factor.

See Wikipedia for the formulas.

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