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Given this table, is X conditionally independent of Y give Z?

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I know conditional independence is P(X|Y,Z) = P(X, Z), but I'm a bit confused about how I can use that with values from the table. I understand how to get P(X|Y,Z) from the table, but am a bit confused about the right hand side of the equation, for example P(X = 0, Z = 0) can have 2 values? I think I'm missing something.

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2 Answers 2

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It's a question, so let me give you some hints so that you could solve it by yourself.

  • The table shows the joint probabilities $\sum_{x,y,z} P(x, y, x) = 1$.

  • Recall the definition of conditional probability

    $$ P(A|B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)} $$

    it will be needed to compute the conditional probabilities from the joint probabilities.

  • You also need the law of total probability

    $$ P(A) = \sum_n P(A \cap B_n) $$

    to get the marginal probabilities.

  • Use the above and check against the definition of conditional independence

    $$ P(A|B,C) = P(A|C) $$

    [...] In this case, $A$ and $B$ are said to be conditionally independent given $C$

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  • $\begingroup$ Thanks! So I tried to calculate P(X = 0) = sum(P(X ^ Zn)) and got 11/18. This was from: P(x = 0, z = 0) + P(x = 0, z = 1) and this is 1/10 + 1/15 + 4/15 + 8/45 = 11/18. Is this the correct way to calculate? Same process for P(x = 1). I think I calculated P(X | Z) similarly $\endgroup$ Commented Aug 1, 2021 at 6:11
  • $\begingroup$ Thanks for all the help, it's been a long while since I've done this stuff so I'm kind of relearning a lot of it. Just to be clear, to get P(X | Z) i took the results from P(X ^ Z) and divided by P(Z = 0) = 1/3 and P(Z = 1) = 2/3, does that sound correct? $\endgroup$ Commented Aug 1, 2021 at 6:14
  • $\begingroup$ @user7538434 yes, basically for $P(X=1)$ you sum all the probabilities where $X=1$ i.e. $\sum_{y,z} P(X=1,Y=y,Z=z)$. $\endgroup$
    – Tim
    Commented Aug 1, 2021 at 6:46
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Thought I'd post an answer of my question since I think I have the correct answer now in case others see this and think it's useful.

Following Tim's advice I calculated P(X|Z) and compared that to P(X|Y,Z) which I think is equivalent to P(X^Z)P(Y^Z)

so using the table in the original question:

P(X=0|Z=0) = P(X=0^Z=0)/P(Z=0) = (1/15 + 1/10) / (1/3) = 1/2
similarly:
P(X=1|Z=0) = P(X=1^Z=0)/P(Z=0) = 1/2
P(X=0|Z=1) = P(X=0^Z=1)/P(Z=1) = 2/3
P(X=1|Z=1) = P(X=1^Z=1)/P(Z=1) = 1/3

For X to be conditionally independent of Y given Z then P(Y^Z) should be 1, but we can see that it isn't. Therefore X isn't conditionally independent of Y give Z.

This also seems to just be clear when looking at the table, since we need to know the value of Y and Z to get X.

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