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I would like to define a log-likelihood (starting with a gaussian distribution) for an observed value of a quantity ($x_i$), compared to the measured value based on a given model ($\hat{x_i}$) and instead of using the measurement errors for each observation ($\sigma_i$), I would like to use the weighing value which is a combination of errors and another measured parameter, i.e. $w_i = 1/(\sigma_i^2+\alpha)$, where $\alpha$ can be a given constant value. It is easy to show that $w_i$ has reverse property as error, meaning it is higher for values with smaller errors mostly.

How could I re-write the likelihood and use the weight value for each measurement instead of errors?

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It sounds like you have observations comprising normal distribution with parameters $x, \sigma^2 + \alpha$. You have model predictions $\hat x, \hat \sigma^2$. Typically, when people don't mention $\hat \sigma^2$, they're just fixing it at one. Then, rather than a log-likelihood, you want its generalization, the cross entropy.

It also sounds like you were thinking of weighting the components of the log-likelihood (or cross entropy) by some $w_i$. Do this only if $w_i$ represents missingness, which it doesn't in your definition.

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  • $\begingroup$ so I should look for the cross entropy, to find the definition of my likelihood? Usually in my field of research they do it since the signal is very low and also decrease with many parameters. I saw the formalism in the literature when they bin the data and estimate the quantities in bins but I don't want to do binning the data and I don't know how it changes?! $\endgroup$
    – Dalek
    Commented Oct 29, 2014 at 7:58
  • $\begingroup$ can you please elaborate more how the cross entropy can be related to my application? I also found this paper, page 20. $\endgroup$
    – Dalek
    Commented Oct 29, 2014 at 13:22
  • $\begingroup$ @dalek: Just write out the cross entropy in terms of your parameters. That's your likelihood. $\endgroup$
    – Neil G
    Commented Oct 29, 2014 at 18:28
  • $\begingroup$ Can you please introduce a reference for the cross entropy method which would be close to the application I am looking for? $\endgroup$
    – Dalek
    Commented Oct 29, 2014 at 19:47
  • $\begingroup$ @Dalek: The cross entropy is just an expectation over the log-likelihood you had before given that your observations are uncertain. $\endgroup$
    – Neil G
    Commented Oct 29, 2014 at 20:10

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