There is a coupon full of football matches for a given day from a bookkeeper. I have scrapped another website and i have aquired continuous history of a particular match between
AvsB. Using data involving only the pair
AvsB i created a transition matrix for the over under bet (above 2.5 goals or below).
i have two states
[0,1] that represent
Over or Under (soccer). I have calculated the transition matrix from
n games and i have an example state probability of
[0.67 0.23] also the odds could be
[2.3 3.1]. All here is made up. What is the most efficient way to allocate my bet? If there is interest ill look up some real data.
The transition matrix calculated from an array of
1's (over under respectively)
|0.3 0.7 | |0.45 0.55|
By betting to clarify i mean that i have 10 dollars for example and i want to spread that 10 dollars in the most efficient way possible.
- full reward for correct guess and no reward otherwise
- The amount i win is the
odds*amountexample 5$$ * (2.3 over) = 11.5$ return