I am considering under what circumstances maximum entropy distributions are closed under marginalization. The main case I am interested is the following setting:
- a finite set of discrete random variables $X_{1},\ldots,X_{n}$. To simplify notation, in the examples below I just use two random variables $X,Y$. The random variables are not independent.
- a set of sufficient statistics $T_{1}, \ldots, T_{m}$ where $T_{i}(x_{1},\ldots,x_{n})$ returns a real number
- a set of mean values $\mu_{1},\ldots,\mu_{m}$
I would like to start with the maximum entropy distribution $P^{\ast}(X,Y)$ that satisfies the moment matching constraints
$$E_{P}[T_{i}(X,Y)] = \mu_{i}.$$
It is well-known that this distribution can be represented in exponential form. Now consider the marginal sufficient statistics
$$T'_{i}(x) = \sum_{y} T_{i}(x,y).$$ with associated moment matching constraints $E_{Q}[T'_{i}(X)] = \mu_{i}$ and maximum entropy solution $Q^{\ast}$. Letting $P^{\ast}(x) = \sum_{y} P^{\ast}(x,y)$ be the marginal distribution for $P^{\ast}$, do we have that
$$P^{\ast}(x) = Q^{\ast}(x)? $$ If not true in general, are there conditions on the sufficient statistics that guarantee this condition?