If we have an autocorrelated variable in the multiple regression model, why does taking first difference help?
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2$\begingroup$ First differencing will remove the effects of a linear trend from estimates of autocorrelation. That is the only circumstance where first differencing is guaranteed to remove autocorrelation. $\endgroup$– whuber ♦Commented Jun 18, 2019 at 20:33
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1 Answer
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I don't know the nature of the autocorrelation in your application. However, taking differences does not, in general, mitigate autocorrelation.
Here is an example with a simple Markov chain:
set.seed(618)
m = 1000; x = numeric(m); x[1] = 0
for (i in 2:m)
{
if (x[i-1] == 0) x[i] = rbinom(1,1,.9)
else x[i] = rbinom(1,1,.2)
}
table(x)
x
0 1
458 542
x[1:16]
[1] 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1
diff(x)[1:15]
[1] 1 0 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 0
par(mfrow=c(1,3))
plot(x[1:30], type="b", pch=19) # first 30 steps
acf(x)
acf(diff(x))
par(mfrow=c(1,1))