It is my understanding that normally GARCH models make forecasts for say T-K days ahead. Instead of doing that I would like to use the data for days 1, 2, ...,k in my dataset to fit a GARCH model to make a 1-day ahead forecast for day k+1. Then I would like to use days 1, 2, ..., k+1 to fit a new GARCH model and to make a 1-day ahead forecast for day k+2. I would like to keep repeating this process and end up doing it a total of T - k times, with the last time consisting of me using the days 1, 2, ..., T-1 to fit GARCH model to make a 1-day ahead forecast for day T. Does this approach have a name in the literature? Thank you!
1 Answer
I think this is simply known as expanding-window estimation. This can be contrasted to rolling-window estimation (also moving-window estimation) where you keep the window size fixed by discarding initial observations when you add new ones. (We have the tag moving-window for that.)
This is not specific to GARCH models but can be used with any time series model.
The forecasts obtained using the rolling-window method may be called rolling forecasts. (I suspect forecasts from expanding-window estimation might be called rolling forecasts, too.)
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$\begingroup$ Thank you, Richard! This is exactly what I was looking for. I have heard of the "rolling-window", but I knew that it couldn't be applied to the case where one end point of the window doesn't move. I will now be able to use this keyword to find more studies that are relevant for my project. Thank you! $\endgroup$– BillBCommented May 19, 2020 at 19:06
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