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It is my understanding that normally GARCH models make forecasts for say T-K days ahead. Instead of doing that I would like to use the data for days 1, 2, ...,k in my dataset to fit a GARCH model to make a 1-day ahead forecast for day k+1. Then I would like to use days 1, 2, ..., k+1 to fit a new GARCH model and to make a 1-day ahead forecast for day k+2. I would like to keep repeating this process and end up doing it a total of T - k times, with the last time consisting of me using the days 1, 2, ..., T-1 to fit GARCH model to make a 1-day ahead forecast for day T. Does this approach have a name in the literature? Thank you!

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I think this is simply known as expanding-window estimation. This can be contrasted to rolling-window estimation (also moving-window estimation) where you keep the window size fixed by discarding initial observations when you add new ones. (We have the tag for that.)

This is not specific to GARCH models but can be used with any time series model.

The forecasts obtained using the rolling-window method may be called rolling forecasts. (I suspect forecasts from expanding-window estimation might be called rolling forecasts, too.)

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  • $\begingroup$ Thank you, Richard! This is exactly what I was looking for. I have heard of the "rolling-window", but I knew that it couldn't be applied to the case where one end point of the window doesn't move. I will now be able to use this keyword to find more studies that are relevant for my project. Thank you! $\endgroup$
    – BillB
    Commented May 19, 2020 at 19:06
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    $\begingroup$ @BillB, you are welcome! $\endgroup$ Commented May 19, 2020 at 19:44

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