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In this paper, the author try to fit the Gumbel distribution based on the r largest value of each year using the maximal likelihood estimators: the likelihood function for r largest values $X_{n1},\dots, X_{nr}$ of each year $n=1,\dots, N$.

Since there is a increasing trend of the data (not iid), so we cannot use the likelihood function for iid data.

Question: How do we deal this case?

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Instead of assuming a fixed $\mu$, the authors use the regression function $\mu(n) = \alpha +\beta n/N$. So they plug its RHS into the ikelihood, to replace each $\mu$, and get a model with three unknown parameters $\sigma, \alpha, \beta$. You estimate them the usual way, by maximising the likelihood (2.5) for your data at the design points. You can use a standard optimisation routine, such as optim in R. (Note the need for constraints, such as $\sigma \geq tol > 0$.) Typically, handling a $\log$ likelihood is easier numerically. There is R functionality for the standard Gumbel distribution, which could help with a starting guess in optimisation. There might be a more specific R package for this type of problem.

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  • $\begingroup$ I guess the linear regression is a better model for the data trend than a constant $\mu$, yet still simple. Or this could be based on the scientific background to the problem, I dunno. Do they give an explanation? $\endgroup$ Commented Nov 14, 2022 at 19:50
  • $\begingroup$ You can go more rigorous and compare the two models according to AIC and/or BIC. Either information criterion has a model complexity penalty $=$ the number of model parameters, to reflect the bias-variance trade-off. $\endgroup$ Commented Nov 14, 2022 at 19:56
  • $\begingroup$ Formally, nothing precludes non-iid likelihood, iid is just a convenience really. $\endgroup$ Commented Nov 14, 2022 at 20:05
  • $\begingroup$ The distribution is iid around a point $\mu(n) = \alpha +\beta n/N$ assuming a fixed $n$. Check nonlinear regression via likelihood. The transformation you mention is an alternative way to deal with non-iid, eg heteroscedasticity. It has pros and cons, such as trickier interpretation of the parameter estimates on the transformed scale. So it's problem-dependent. Anyway, it's a big, separate topic. $\endgroup$ Commented Nov 14, 2022 at 20:15
  • $\begingroup$ Why can't you use a non-iid likelihood? Not illegal. Might be worth trying to really understand the definition of likelihood. $\endgroup$ Commented Nov 14, 2022 at 20:19

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