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For questions about the theory or applications of the Poisson process, one of the most widely applied point processes in statistics and elsewhere.

2 votes

How to simulate Poisson arrival times if the rate varies with time?

It's pretty straightforward, thanks to the fact that the interarrival times of a Poisson process are exponentially distributed and the exponential distribution has the memoryless property. (As an asi …
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2 votes
Accepted

Let $\{N(t), t \geq 0 \}$ be a $PP(\lambda)$. Compute $P(N(t) = k | N(t + s) = k + m)$

1) Think of each of those $k+m$ events as having occurred either before $t$ or after $t$, and you're trying to calculate the probability that exactly $k$ of them occurred before $t$, which leaves exac …
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1 vote
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Conditional expectation of Poisson process given number of events

Your mistake lies in the transition between this statement: $$\mathbb{E}[S_4 | N(1) = 2] = \mathbb{E}[S_2 + T_3 + T_4 | N(1) = 2]$$ and this statement (the next line): $$\mathbb{E}[S_4 | N(1) = 2] …
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1 vote
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Expected value of conditional Poisson process

Let us assume we have a Poisson process with an arrival rate of $\lambda$. After some time $t$, $N_t$ unobserved arrivals have occurred. After some more time, say $\tau$, we observe that $N_{t+\tau} …
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2 votes

Can I estimate the parameter of a Poisson arrival process from a low-incidence observation p...

Unfortunately, the maximum likelihood estimate of the rate parameter for a Poisson process that's sampled over a predetermined interval $T$ does not have a finite mean (or higher moments). This is be …
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3 votes
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Compound Poisson Process with Weibull jumps

You've sort of mixed up two distinct approaches to this problem, hence your understandable confusion. One approach is to ignore the time dimension and simply generate a sample of $Z_i, i \in \{1, \do …
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3 votes
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Estimating event duration by sampling with a Poisson process

Each Poisson arrival will see the system either in state $E$ or not-$E$ ($\bar{E}$). One might suspect that we can construct confidence intervals for the long run fraction of the time in state $E$ ( …
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2 votes

Algorithm for generating a Poisson process on a complicated 2d geometry

You can find the areas of the counties in California from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_counties_in_California. This will enable you to generate a count $n_i$ from the appropriate Poisson dis …
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3 votes
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Let $N(t)$ is a poisson process with rate $\lambda$, $T^* \sim \operatorname{Exp}(\lambda^*)...

We can use the law of total expectations to simplify the problem as follows: $$\mathbb{E} N(\min(t,T^*)) = \lambda \mathbb{E}\min(t,T^*)$$ Finding $\mathbb{E} \min(t,T^*)$ is straightforward: $$\mathb …
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1 vote
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Grid based piecewise-stationary Poisson process test

You have made a slight, but important, mistake in your likelihood function. Let's try constructing it differently, breaking the $T=13,500$-length time period into $13,500$ time periods of length $1$ …
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4 votes
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Distribution of arrival times to server for an M/M/1 queue (what the server experiences)

It's a mixture of three distributions, and can be found pretty easily by brute force, if one allows oneself to handwave over some important details (e.g., "is $\lambda < \mu$"). Let $n$ be the numb …
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3 votes

Mean service time of a $M/E_2/1$ queueing system?

1) Yes, the mean of the service time distribution is just the mean of the Gamma(2,$\lambda)$ distribution. 2) The traffic intensity of the system is the arrival rate / the service rate, in this case: …
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3 votes

Characteristic Function of a Compound Poisson Process

Here's another approach that uses a common trick with characteristic functions to avoid having to work out the sums / integrals. I'll set $\lambda = 1$ without loss of generality, it simplifies nota …
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