Consider a data generating process $$Y=f(X)+\varepsilon$$ where $\varepsilon$ is independent of $x$ with $\mathbb E(\varepsilon)=0$ and $\text{Var}(\varepsilon)=\sigma^2_\varepsilon$. According to Hastie et al. "The Elements of Statistical Learning" (2nd edition, 2009) Section 7.3 p. 223, we can derive an expression for the expected prediction error of a regression fit $\hat g(X)$ at an input point $X=x_0$, using squared-error loss:
\begin{align} \text{Err}(x_0) &=\mathbb E[(Y-\hat g(x_0))^2|X=x_0]\\ &=(\mathbb E[\hat g(x_0)−f(x_0)])^2+\mathbb E[(\hat g(x_0)−\mathbb E[\hat g(x_0)])^2]+\sigma^2_\varepsilon\\ &=\text{Bias}^2\ \ \ \quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\;\;+\text{Variance } \quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad+ \text{ Irreducible Error} \end{align}
(where I use the notation $\text{Bias}^2$ instead of $\text{Bias}$ and $\hat g$ instead of $\hat f$).
Recently, I caught myself using the same term, bias, in two situations:
- Just as above, $\text{Bias}=\mathbb E[\hat g(x_0)−f(x_0)]$ for a specific
fitted model$\require{enclose}\enclose{horizontalstrike}{\hat g}$ sample size $n$ and referring to a specific value $x_0$ of the regressors. - Referring to the ability of a class of models $g$ to approximate $f$ across different values of $x_0$ given infinite data. In this sense, $g(x)=\beta_0+\beta_1 x+\beta_2 x^2$ is an "unbiased" class of models for $f(x)=0.5+2x$, because $0.5+2x$ is a special case of $\beta_0+\beta_1 x+\beta_2 x^2$, and given infinite data we can learn the values of $(\beta_0,\beta_1,\beta_2)$ to be $(0.5,2,0)$.
Is there a better term than bias to refer to the second case? Perhaps asymptotic bias?
\sout
is not working. $\endgroup$