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This tag describes the process of creating a statistical or machine learning model. Always add a more specific tag.

1 vote

How to address nonlinearities among covariates when modelling?

Generally, it is recommended to drop one variable from modelling when we found any collinearity among two variables. Recommended by whom exactly? Collinearity between explanatory variables is a …
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1 vote

Checking the goodness of a probability model

Ordinarily, when we fit data to a proposed model, we test whether the model is "adequate" by looking at the distribution of the residual values, and comparing aspects of this distribution to the theor …
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2 votes

What probability distribution would be suitable for modelling scores in a basketball match?

Without observing actual data from those sports, what you are talking about are essentially just prior beliefs about what the processes might plausibly look like. Ultimately you will need to test the …
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1 vote

Time Trend Analysis

The problem with Poisson models is that they are single-parameter models that do not allow a free variance parameter. For this reason, when dealing with count data it is usually far better to use a n …
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0 votes

Is there a commonly-accepted/used notion of parametric statistical model equivalence?

I recommend you start by looking at statistical/econometric literature on "identifiability". That concept pertains to reducdancy of parameters in a model, but I suppose it could also accomodate redun …
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11 votes

Does automatic model selection via AIC bias the p-values of the selected model? [Looking for...

Yes, it does bias the p-values Your intuition on this is correct --- generally speaking, whenever we select a model via optimisation we bias the resulting p-value for any tests that fail to account fo …
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4 votes
Accepted

How can I model negative binomial sampling with a maximum number of attempts until success?

This can be framed as a problem with censoring if you like. Given that it is possible to take a sample without finding the disease (even if it is there) you have two aspects to your inference problem …
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42 votes

Why do we worry about overfitting even if "all models are wrong"?

Why do we worry about overfitting even if “all models are wrong”? Your question appears to be a variation of the Nirvana fallacy, implicitly suggesting that if there is no perfect model, then eve …
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7 votes
Accepted

Is data-driven modelling and machine learning the same thing?

The term "machine learning" is somewhat a term of art, but it generally refers to the construction of algorithms that "learn through experience". The requirement of learning through experience necess …
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1 vote
Accepted

Regression Time based model

It is not really possible to say which type of model will fit the data best prior to doing some actual model-fitting and model-comparison. However, I can give you some advice on where I'd start. Obv …
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2 votes

In a Bayesian hierarchical model, if exchangeability doesn't hold, what exactly goes wrong?

From the representation theorem, we know that exchangeability is essentially just an operational condition that is equivalent to the conditional IID form (which implies equicorrelation among the obser …
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3 votes

"maximizing" logistic regression

Let $p$ be the price of the item and let $Q$ be the corresponding indicator of a sale (your quantity variable). Then your logistic regression can be specified as: $$\mathbb{E}(Q) = \text{logistic}(\ …
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2 votes
Accepted

Where can possibility measures come from empirically?

I think the simple answer here is that we usually implicitly form a view on a space of possible events when we form a probability model. Typically we will demarcate the model to allow a set of outcom …
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2 votes

Is it possible to train a linear model with the coefficients of a different model?

There are two general ways you could go about doing this: Build a single model of both datasets: If you can build a single model that incorporates the data from both analyses then this will naturally …
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5 votes

Avoiding social discrimination in model building

In order to build a model of this kind, it is important to first understand some basic statistical aspects of discrimination and process-outcomes. This requires understanding of statistical processes …
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