9
votes
Name of this fallacy and how to reach conclusion
News source 1 gives the distribution of ideology conditional on membership of Group B. News source 2 gives the distribution of group membership conditional on Ideology beta. These statements each ...
- 133k
8
votes
Name of this fallacy and how to reach conclusion
You can consider this as cherry picking. It is a narrow selective representation of the data that favors only a particular viewpoint.
At the same time both news sources make also fallacious ...
- 86.5k
5
votes
Name of this fallacy and how to reach conclusion
I broadly agree with many aspects mentioned in previous answers.
I just want to state that the core of both statements in the question is true and correct, namely
Ideology-beta is only supported by a ...
- 28.3k
3
votes
Choosing the right stats textbook - graduate level
A general advise would be going online on university statistics department websites and on individual class pages and looking at their recommended textbooks.
Here is the graduate level probability ...
3
votes
Accepted
What statistical methods are used for estimating the effect of political policies?
Pretty much every tool in the whole statistics toolbox can be used to evaluate policy. The real problems (compared to epidemiology) are often more in the design and the data:
It's often difficult, ...
- 128k
2
votes
Multicollinearity confusion
The problem with colinearity is not so much bias in the parameter estimates as huge variance in those estimates and extreme sensitivity to small changes in the input data. David Belsley, in his two ...
- 128k
1
vote
Name of this fallacy and how to reach conclusion
I see in this problem a symptom that is rarely mentioned in textbooks, for the simple reason that it’s not really about statistics per sé, but more about scientific method and philosophy of science.
I’...
- 386
1
vote
Political Analysis - Chance that similar event happens in future
Probabilities are mathematical constructs that can be determined within probability models. They don't exist in the real world outside such models. So the probabilities you are interested in could be ...
- 28.3k
1
vote
How do I use a distribution as an independent variable in a regression?
You want to use a variable that can be considered as compositional (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compositional_data). As stated in previous comments there is the issue of collinearity if you try to ...
1
vote
Multi level modelling, conceptual questions
Multilevel models work well with observational survey data as you've described.
Wrt small sample sizes and depending on the functional form of the hierarchical model more (or less) information is ...
- 10.9k
1
vote
Accepted
What should I study to understand this table?
As it written on the table explanation at the bottom, first column uses ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) which is a model that suits for time - series analysis.
This model seems a bit ...
- 232
1
vote
Comparing differences between overlapping groups
With overlapping groups, you can still use a t-test based on the following:
$$
\begin{aligned}
\text{Under }H_0:\space \bar{Y}_1 = \bar{Y}_2 &\\
\\
\frac{\hat{\bar{Y}}_1 - \hat{\bar{Y}}_2}{\sqrt{\...
- 506
1
vote
Is there a known bias with telephone polls in the U.S.?
Would an organization interested in manipulating public opinion choose a telephone poll, over online polls, or interviewing in the street, if they were after a specific bias?
All polling methods can ...
- 11
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